I could certainly be wrong.
When everyone first thought they were gone and the leaked memos came out I thought they had them.
As I mentioned in an earlier post I was in communication with Gox and Mark and still am (by email).
They are very low on info and have not flat out stated either way but I don't believe they have the coins now.
Since the memos came out my likelihood estimate of them having the coins has decreased daily/ hourly. Right now I'd say there is a 98% chance they don't have them. I hold out hope as an optimist on the other 2% that this is just more bad PR and the vagueness has been the result of a third party court order or some other thing….I have no evidence of that.
The address forensics that people have done, if accurate, would seem to then indicate that either a safety deposit box was seized, the keys were lost, some encryption system or something was compromised etc.
All total speculation but I don't believe they are accessible by Gox or Mark.
I just don't want to see too many people get carried away with excitement….this is not the situation we thought it was a couple weeks ago where it's a matter of some technical fixes and everyone gets everything back. It seems now they are not frozen but gone.
Some people are responding to this saying “duh Bruce! we all knew they were gone 2-4 weeks ago”. — I don't think it was or is that clear.
Same reason I am still not ready to call out Mark as a liar and fraud as some suggested I should. I've been accused of giving people too much benefit of the doubt before and too much trust….clearly he has made at the least massively and profoundly bad decisions but there are still POSSIBLE explanations for how he could have been truthful or at least mostly truthful and still be the same situation.
I've offered personally and on behalf of the Bitcoin Association to fly to Japan on my own expense to get more clarity and report back and also to use any resources possible to ask for investigative help from law enforcement if indeed it was theft/ hackers.
(And before anyone compares law enforcement to regulation, they are two different things and even the very low government fans among us still often feel that investigation and prosecution of theft is a legitimate government role)