In the previous session, we saw bitcoin uncoil upwards. In the 1H chart, we can see that the uncoiling extended further during the Thursday April 2 session. Here are some observations:
1) Price has sprung up from the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving avearges (SMAs). This shows the market’s decision to turn bullish.
2) The RSI has tagged above 70, which shows initiation of bullish momentum.
3) Price is still holding under the 255-256 highs, which suggests that the bullish outlook was so far a near-term one.
Bullish Scenario: Now, if price can break above 256, this bullish outlook can extend further into next week and revive the 300-handle. But let’s take a step back first. Let’s say we see resistance at 255 as shown in the 1H chart, we should monitor for support in the 245-248 area. This represents the central pivot of the current consolidation range and also where the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs reside. Support here would confirm the bullish intent of the market and the pressure would remain on the 255/256 area which should become more vulnerable as the market makes higher lows.
Failure: Whether price breaks or holds under 255/256, a break subsequent decline back under 245 would put btcusd back into a neutral-bearish mode, with pressure towards the 235-236 lows. A break below 235 then opens up some common support levels in the 200-210 area.
Going back to the bullish outlook, a break above 256 does open up the 300 handle, but there is a key resistance before that, at around 270.
The 4H chart shows that above 256, the 270 area is a previous support/resistance area and where the 200-period SMA resides. Price would also be challenged by a falling trendline around 270. Hence, a break above 270 might be needed to revive the bullish outlook towards 300-310 highs. Above that the 321 high on the year would come into play.
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