After ending last week in a consolidation range, bitcoin is starting this week with a bullish breakout.
There are two breakouts we can see in the 1H chart.
1) The first breakout was during the turn of the month after a few sessions of coiling. At the end of last week, price started to cross above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs). BTCUSD ended the week pushing at 256 but ended up in another consolidation for a couple of days.
2) Another breakout occurred as the weekend transitioned into the global trading week. In the 1H chart we can see the break above 256, then a brief pause where price tested the 256 level as support. As we get into the April 6th Asian session, the cryptocurrency made another push higher. The fact that price is now holding above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs reflect a market that has turned bullish at least in the very short-term.
Also, note that since last week, the 1H RSI has tagged above 70 and has held above 40, which reflects maintenance of the newly established bullish momentum in the near, short-term. At this point, as long as price can hold above 250, the market should still be bullish this week.
In the 4H chart we can see that the breakout has another challenge coming up soon between 265 and 270.
Although its breakout city in the 1H chart, we can see that there is a prevailing downtrend since the early-mid March. Therefore, we should respect the falling trendline and 200-period SMA in the $H chart, as well as the resistance pivot around 270. With the 4H RSI above 70, look out for a bearish divergence.
Again, if there is a pullback, a hold above 250 should keep the pressure towards the 270 area. Now, a break above 270 would clear some significant resistance factors in the 4H chart and should open up the 300-310 highs from March.
Failure to break above 270, and a return below 250 however would keep the pressure back towards the Match lows around 235, with risk of extending the prevailing downtrend in the short-medium-term.
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