After a few weekend sessions of narrow sideways consolidation, bitcoin started the week with a bearish breakout at the end of the April 13th (Monday) session. As we can see in the 1H chart, the downtrend remains intact in the near, short-term.
Some observations from the 1H chart:
1) The 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping down and are in bearish alignment while price remained under all of them. This represents continuation of the bearish bias in this time-frame.
2) The 1H RSI hedl under 60, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing near-term and short-term bearish momentum.
3) There is relatively strong volume during the breakout.
The break below 230 sent bitcoin down to 220 before stalling in the beginning of the April 14 session. The RSI was way below 30, even below 20, which represents strong bearish momentum but also oversold condition in the near-term. Indeed we are seeing a bounce from 220. Now, if price pulls back to 230, we should expect resistance, up to the 235 area.
The next stop to the downside could the previous support pivot at 210.
As we can see in the zoomed out 4H chart above, the 210 level was a common support in early February. Below that support, bitcoin will open up the 165-166 low on the year. Note that the 4H RSi is also tagging 20, which represents revival of the bearish momentum. Now if there is a pullback from 210, and the RSI turns up above 30, look for a pullback with maximum upside to 240. This would still be within the context of a bearish continuation market.
However, if a pullback pushes above 250, the pressure will turn towards the 262 April high. A break above this high would reverse the bearish continuation scenario back to a sideways or bullish consolidation. That would put pressure towards the highs around 300-310 from mid, to late-January.
Previous Post by Author: Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 9/4/2015 – Bearish Continuation
