Last week, bitcoin found support just above 216 and rebounded to about 230. After that, it ended the week with a bearish continuation attempt, which held back as it found support at a common support around 220.
Here are some observations in the 1H chart:
1) Price is under the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMA, which means it still maintains a bearish bias as we get ready for another week.
2) The RSI has been oscillating between 30 and 70, which means there is no directional momentum yet. The fact that it is falling below 40 shows that the previous session’s bullish momentum is lost.
3) There is some coiling, and some will see a symmetric triangle, while others will see a descending triangle.
A break below 220 would open up the bearish continuation scenario, with the 210 common support in sight. A break above takes away the near-term bearish bias, which exposes bitcoin to a possible formation of a price bottom, at least for the near and short-term. Take a look at the 4H chart.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart April 20
(click to enlarge)
Let’s follow a bullish correction scenario. We can see that in consolidation, 230 is a key resistance especially with the prevailing downtrend intact, and the RSI holding under 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum.
Now, if there is a break above 230, 240 would become the next key resistance. Resistance here would still maintain a bearish outlook. A break above 250 however, might open up further bullish reversal for the short to medium-term.
When we look at the daily chart, we can see a market that is in consolidation, but has revived some bearish bias and bias momentum as price returned below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs, and while the RSI fell down to 30.
However, with price near the middle of the consolidation range, we should limit any bullish or bearish outlook to the very short-term, but favor the bearish outlook because it would be in-line with the prevailing trend.
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