In our previous update on bitcoin, we saw the cryptocurrency coiling between a rising speedline from this week, and a falling speedline from last week. This ha not changed during the April 29 session. As we get started with the global April 30th session, we can see that price is still between the speedlines. It is holding below the 200-hoursimple moving average (SMA), but above the 100- and 50-hourSMAs. The 1H RSI has been mostly stuck between 40 and 60. These are all signs that the market is still undecided on the direction outside of the intra-session swings.
At this point, as price moves towards where the converging trendlines meet, the breakout from the trendlines will not be significant. Instead we can look at the intra-session range set up between roughly 222 and 228. A break above 228 would open up a bullish outlook as btcusd would trade above the 200-hour SMA. Also, if the 1H RSI holds above 40 and returns back towards 70, we would be seeing development of bullish momentum. This scenario would open up the 238 high from last week.
However, if price falls below 222, we are likely going to see pressure back towards the 214 low, especially if the 1H RSI falls below 40 because that would reflect a loss of the bullish momentum from earlier in the week.
There has not been much change in the 4H chart, but a look at it reminds us that there is a slight bearish bias in the medium-term. First of all price is still mostly trading below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs, while the 200-period SMA has not even been touched in April. Furthermore, after falling below 30 to start the week, the 4H RSI has remained below 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum from the weekend into this week.
So, let’s wait until a breakout either above 228 or below 222 to give us a clue to the direction. A break to the downside would be preferred as it would be in-line with the prevailing trend. We would have a bearish outlook to 214 and beyond. However, the bullish outlook arising from a break above 228 should first be limited to the 238-240 area, until further evidence that bitcoin is bottoming.
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