Analytics provided by BBA
As expected, the Bitcoin markets have been relatively stable over the past week, although it now looks like a rally up to resistance is becoming more and more likely.
Now that a week has passed since the halving and there has been no technical incident, no significant drop in hash rate, no network clogging fee event, and no major selloff in price, we think the market is simply digesting its new economic reality for the time being. Unfortunately for traders this digestion period means a lack of volatility due to a tightening consolidation, however as we know range contraction inevitably leads to range expansion at some point. While this range expansion may not be imminent, the market seems to be preparing itself technically for this possibility.
Our working hypothesis for the past month has been that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound consolidation between the $550 and $780 levels, within which price has been pinned near the midpoint for over a week. Following what was an extremely stagnant trading day over the weekend on Saturday, Sunday saw a slight pick-up in buying action which pushed price above key resistance at $680. Now the market is trying to hold these gains into the new weekly candle as macroeconomic uncertainty is relatively high going into this Monday, so if the bulls can successfully fend off the bears for a bit longer then there is a good chance at testing $700 in the not too distant future.
Moving on to the charts for additional clarity and granularity, we first want to revisit the daily chart in order to get the medium term perspective. We can see that the bullish pennant formation has now been resolved to the upside, however we are lacking firm confirmation which means it very well could be […]
