OPINION: A long, long time ago, as seen in the history books, last December Bitcoin reached almost $20K and other cryptos saw an exciting rise with some tokens witnessing a massive 1000% increase. No one would have expected what is to follow. The next year began with a downtrend which continued on for six months (at press time).
Although chart analysts and market readers expected a pullback, no one expected the market to be in the current bearish hold for such a long time. Bitcoin at press time was trading at $6484 to a token with a market cap of $111 billion and a poor trading volume of $3 billion which was last commonly experienced in early November last year.
AMBCrypto reporters tried to understand the current market sentiment by interviewing different people from the industry including miners, investors, “whales”, devs and other people from the market who currently are vested in the market.
The following break-down is just a synopsis and aggregation of all opinions from the reported sentiments.
- From ~$20K to $14K – The expected pullback: Although the analysts and traders predicted a fall to $16K, $14k is what they settled for as a “pull-back” price scenario before Bitcoin went back up again.
- From $14K to $11.8K – Regulatory Concerns: The second half of January was plagued with regulatory crackdown news from South Korea to India where the possibility of “banning” cryptos was in play. Chaotic and panic driven markets could be seen in play.
- From $11.8K to 9K – Uncertain markets + hacks + Mt. Gox Fear: This phase was clouded with fear following the regulatory hacks. Although Mt. Gox’s selling would or wouldn’t have affected the prices during January/Feb, the fear definitely played a part and kept institutional investors at bay. Exchange hacks rumors and a big chunk of money being actually stolen did play a part in the already “FUD”ed markets.
- From $9K to the current $6K – Inconclusive: There were a lot of unsatisfying answers from the Coinrail hack to the prices being manipulated by Bitfinex’s Tether but the most legitimate point would be the current trading volumes which are currently 5-6 times lower than what was witnessed during the peak trading period in Dec-Jan’ 18. Prices reflecting from low trade volumes are generally considered futile.
An earlier article pointed out the possibility of Bitcoin markets staying red till September because of the possible Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell-off which could resume post the court date scheduled for the 18th of September.
Philemon Naga (pseudo name), a crypto investor with an interesting portfolio worth $5.23 million talks to AMBCrypto about price manipulation and says,
“Manipulations are part of not only the crypto world, it’s there all around you. Getting 1 BTC for $6k is a steal today but there isn’t enough buying pressure. Are we waiting for a $4k scenario? There is no way in hell Bitcoin doesn’t go up from here. IMO the people who are currently selling it so cheap should be primarily merchants for goods or services. Smart guys are still in, I consider weak hands to be out. Unless Satoshi wakes up and sells his shit, this market is going nowhere, we are in for a big rebound”
Rakesh Chandran, a digital marketing manager and a crypto investor and miner from 2016 says,
“Buy the dip is easier said than done, a lot of people still panic-sell without understanding the gravity of their loss. A look at the data from Google Trends shows the huge drop in search volumes and thereby the interest. The people who hold on right now are the only ones who make it big.”
Majid Khan, a veteran trader from New York says,
“If you know Bitcoin from 2013 then you know that there was a sudden spurt in price around 2013 when it touched $1000 and then never went back there again till about 3 years later. But when it did come back, it came back with a bang. People fail to look at the bigger picture. A bearish claw now is ok; worst case scenario by this year end we might see some positive price action but that doesn’t mean Bitcoin or crypto is dead. It never will be. Bitcoin might die 20-30 years down the line but crypto will never die. You are lucky to be here so early”
Ripple at press time was trading at $0.52 to a token with a market cap of $20 billion witnessing a 14% drop over the past week like most other tokens. Ripple’s Cory Johnson had recently stated his views on how “XRP is crypto 2.0“. Although the “new” partnership announcements have reduced and prices have been stagnant, Ripple arguably has one of the widest and strongest communities in the cryptosphere.
Tron [TRX] and EOS were the biggest news in the past two months with their Mainnet launches. Although EOS had a few glitches along the way, the Mainnet launch and token swap was considered a success by some from the community. EOS took off post-March 18th when it was trading at just $4 to a token to an all-time high of above $20 around April 30th.
Despite the bearish market throughout this year, many consider 2018 to be the year with the most amount of progress in the blockchain space. Technological developments and government adoption of blockchain technology into the state infrastructure should according to many signals a positive sign for cryptos. The crypto incentive is what propelled blockchain forward, without the incentive, developments might stifle.