Please see our report devoted to the analysis of cryptocurrency market movements during 2018. Special attention has been given to the review of changes taking place in July 2018, most notably July 8-22, 2018.
Information as of July 23, 2018
This report was created by:
- Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
- Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
This report presents data on cryptocurrency market changes during 2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that have taken place during July 2018, including over the past two weeks (July 8-22, 2018).
1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis. Market trends
1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis
Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from April 1, 2018, to July 22, 2018*
|Parameter||1-Apr-18||1-May-18||MoM, %||1-June-18||MoM, %||1-July-18||MoM, %||8-July-18||DoD, %||15-July-18||DoD, %||22-July-18||DoD, %|
|1||Total market capitalization, USD billion||263.9||423.2||60.4%||331.3||-21.7%||257.7||-22.2%||278.3||8.0%||249.5||-10.3%||281.6||12.9%|
|2||Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion||145.2||265.8||83.1%||203.2||-23.6%||147.9||-27.2%||160.8||8.7%||142.0||-11.7%||154.3||8.7%|
|Altcoin dominance, %||55.0%||62.8%||–||61.3%||–||57.4%||–||57.8%||–||56.9%||–||54.8%||–|
|3||Bitcoin price, $||7 003.1||9 251.5||32.1%||7 500.7||-18.9%||6 411.7||-14.5%||6 857.8||7.0%||6 272.7||-8.5%||7 417.8||18.3%|
|Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion||118.7||157.4||32.6%||128.0||-18.6%||109.8||-14.2%||117.5||7.0%||107.6||-8.5%||127.3||18.3%|
|Bitcoin dominance, %||45.0%||37.2%||–||38.6%||–||42.6%||–||42.2%||–||43.1%||–||45.2%||–|
|4||Ethereum price, $||397.3||670.5||68.8%||578.7||-13.7%||455.2||-21.3%||492.1||8.1%||435.9||-11.4%||462.4||6.1%|
|Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion||39.1||66.5||69.8%||57.7||-13.1%||45.7||-20.8%||49.5||8.2%||43.9||-11.3%||46.6||6.2%|
|Ethereum dominance, %||14.8%||15.7%||–||17.4%||–||17.7%||–||17.8%||–||17.6%||–||16.6%||–|
|5||Bitcoin Cash price, $||688.0||1 348.6||96.0%||995.7||-26.2%||749.2||-24.8%||775.8||3.6%||703.0||-9.4%||788.5||12.2%|
|Bitcoin Cash market capitalization, USD billion||11.7||23.1||96.6%||17.1||-25.9%||12.9||-24.5%||13.4||3.6%||12.1||-9.3%||13.6||12.2%|
|Bitcoin Cash dominance, %||4.4%||5.5%||–||5.2%||–||5.0%||–||4.8%||–||4.9%||–||4.8%||–|
|6||Litecoin price, $||116.9||148.3||26.9%||118.0||-20.4%||81.5||-30.9%||86.3||5.8%||76.7||-11.1%||84.3||9.9%|
|Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion||6.5||8.4||27.9%||6.7||-19.8%||4.7||-30.4%||4.9||6.0%||4.4||-10.9%||4.8||10.1%|
|Litecoin dominance, %||2.5%||2.0%||–||2.0%||–||1.8%||–||1.8%||–||1.8%||–||1.7%||–|
|7||Volume (24h) 4 crypto, USD billion||6.4||11.8||84.2%||7.7||-35.0%||7.1||-7.1%||5.3||-25.8%||5.1||-3.3%||5.7||12.0%|
|Market cap 4 crypto, USD billion||189.7||279.7||47.5%||226.9||-18.9%||186.7||-17.7%||199.7||7.0%||180.8||-9.4%||205.4||13.6%|
|ZAK-4 Crypto index**||3.4%||4.2%||–||3.4%||–||3.8%||–||2.6%||–||2.8%||–||2.8%||–|
|4 crypto dominance, %||71.9%||66.1%||–||68.5%||–||72.4%||–||71.8%||–||72.5%||–||73.0%||–|
|8||Volume (24h) 8 crypto, USD billion||7.2||16.0||121.3%||9.2||-42.4%||8.2||-10.5%||6.1||-25.9%||5.9||-2.7%||6.7||12.8%|
|Market cap 8 crypto, USD billion||208.7||319.5||53.1%||255.9||-19.9%||205.9||-19.5%||220.5||7.1%||198.9||-9.8%||227.2||14.2%|
|ZAK-8 Crypto index***||3.5%||5.0%||–||3.6%||–||4.0%||–||2.8%||–||3.0%||–||3.0%||–|
|8 crypto dominance, %||79.1%||75.5%||–||77.2%||–||79.9%||–||79.2%||–||79.7%||–||80.7%||–|
* Data as of July 22, 2018 (all figures calculated at 03:00 UTC)
** Since December 1, 2017, the ZAK-4 index has been calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash.
*** When calculating the ZAK-8 index, the cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization are used. At present (July 22, 2018), the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, Stellar, and EOS are used to calculate the ZAK-8 index.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
When analyzing cryptocurrency market trends, the period from July 8-22, 2018, is used, while the two calendar week from July 9-22, 2018, are used for the news overview.
Cryptocurrency market capitalization increased over the analyzed period (July 8-22, 2018) and as of 03:00 UTC equaled $281.6 billion (see Table 1.1). The growth compared to the start of the month equaled around $24 billion.
The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of 03:00 UTC on July 22, 2018, equaled 73% and 80.7%, respectively, with bitcoin dominance sitting at 45.2% (see Table 1.1).
During the period from July 8-22, 2018, cryptocurrency market capitalization fluctuated from $242.4 billion (min) to $ 300 billion (max) (Fig. 1a), i.e. within a range of $57.6 billion. For its part, bitcoin capitalization fluctuated from $105.4 billion (min) to $130.2 billion (max), i.e. within a range of $25 billion.
It is worth noting the upward spike in the evening of July 17, during which cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by $11.5 billion over 90 minutes and the bitcoin price unwaveringly passed the $7000 barrier.
Figure 1a. Cryptocurrency market capitalization since July 8, 2018
Figure 1b shows bitcoin capitalization (red line) superimposed on cryptocurrency market capitalization (blue line). The lines are practically identical, but more intensive growth in bitcoin can be seen compared to overall market capitalization. Ultimately, over the past two weeks Bitcoin dominance increased by 3%, from 42.2% to 45.2% (see Table 1.1).
Figure 1b. Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market (blue) and bitcoin (red) since July 8, 2018
There were no landmark events on July 17 that generated the sharp growth in capitalization. However, we can point to a number of positive news items on the cryptocurrency market that appeared the day before:
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Ping An Group are launching a joint blockchain-based trading system, i.e. the 2017 project to unite more than 20 banks in Hong Kong and Singapore into a single blockchain-based financial platform to reduce paperwork and fraud is starting to be implemented.
- CoinDesk published information concerning the international payment company American Express, which filed a patent application on systems and methods for blockchain based proof of payment that will use blockchain to confirm transactions, including to “unlock a hotel, rental or shared economy property door using the card (e.g., that was used for the payment), in order to find proof of payment on blockchain.” In addition, “the system may be leveraged to provide ticketless access to venues (e.g., a movie theater, sports event, concert, etc.) to a customer.”
- Coinbase Inc., one of the most popular cryptocurrency platforms, has announced that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) have approved its acquisition of the broker-dealers Keystone Capital Corp., Venovate Marketplace Inc. and Digital Wealth LLC.
- The Swiss stock exchange operator is “open” to cryptocurrency trading on the new SIX Digital Exchange. SIX will also offer a full range of ICO advisory services.
- The SBI Holdings Corporation (Japan) has announced the launch of the VCTRADE cryptocurrency exchange.
- The Twitter account of the South Korean cryptoexchange Coinrail announced the resumption of trading and a total upgrade of the platform’s security system.
- IBM and the startup Stronghold will create the stablecoin USD Anchor on the Stellar blockchain. The coin’s price will be tied to the US dollar.
The rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past seven days (July 15-22, 2018)
Last week’s leaders from among the top 500 cryptocurrencies by capitalization, which showed an appreciation of more than 100%, were the projects InflationCoin (+1,310%), Proxeus (+181.5%), and ToaCoin (+154%). The growth of Quantum Resistant Ledger (+73%), Bitcoin Diamond (+72%), KickCoin (+60%), Kin (+50.5%), and Dogecoin (+45%) should also be noted.
During the period from July 15-22, 2018, the change in the prices of cryptocurrencies in the top 500 ranged from -50.27% (RealChain) to +1,310% (InflationCoin). The price of InflationCoin is very volatile, as the 24-hour trading volume of this cryptocurrency rarely exceeds five thousand US dollars, meaning that the price of this cryptocurrency reacts very strongly to any purchases or sales worth more than one thousand US dollars.
The price of RealChain fell by more than 50% over the week, perhaps due to a downward adjustment after its rapid growth the week before, when RealCoin appreciated by more than 100%.
The price of 380 cryptocurrencies and digital assets from the top 500 showed growth, including 88 from the top 100.
Over the past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion remained the same at 19, with the price of all of them appreciating except VeChain (-3.11%), Ethereum Classic (-0.55%) and Tether (the price of which is tied to the US dollar). The price growth equaled: Stellar (+40%), Cardano (+22%), Bitcoin (+18%), EOS (+15%), Dash (+14), etc.
The coins and tokens from the top 100 that demonstrated the largest price growth are given in Fig. 2.
Biggest gainers and losers over the week (July 15-22, 2018)
The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.
Below we consider the 10 cryptocurrencies that demonstrated the most significant change in price over the past week (Fig. 2-3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 100 (Fig. 2, Fig. 3) in terms of market capitalization were considered.
Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the past week (July 15-22, 2018)
Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that might have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that might have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.
Table 1.2. Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
|№||Coins and tokens||Symbol||Price growth over the week, %||Average price in $ on July 22, 2018||Market capitalization, USD billion||Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week|
|1||Bitcoin Diamond||BCD||72.15%||$3.55||0.55||The growth leader among the coins and tokens from the top 100 by capitalization was Bitcoin Diamond, the price of which increased by more than 70% after its listing on the HitBTC exchange (Twitter). |
The price of the Kin cryptocurrency also showed strong growth this week caused mainly by positive market trends, as well as the announcement of the issue of the beta version of the Kinit app (Twitter).
The price of MOAC appreciated after favorable news on its partnership with UNITOPIA (Twitter).
The TenX price increased due to the overall positive market trend.
The support of IBM and bitcoin growth both played into the hand of the creators and holders of Stellar. IBM and the startup Stronghold will launch a new stablecoin called USD Anchor on the Stellar blockchain http://bit.ly/2LjjDmm. The price of the coin was affected by rumors on its inclusion on the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange and by news on its receipt of a Sharia compliance certificate from the Islamic community (Twitter). Stellar continues to grow, with its price already reaching a new record high for the last two months.
Decentrald published a favorable report on its updated Twitter page on July 17, which was the main positive stimulus for price growth (Twitter)
The other coins were not involved in any clearly important events.
Therefore, we will simply remind you that ZenCash is a digital currency created in 2016 that differs from its predecessors in the anonymity of transactions.
Ardor is a blockchain-based ecosystem that offers convenient network scaling options and has a favorable structure for business.
A depreciation in price was seen last week for 120 coins and tokens from the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets by capitalization. The ten cryptocurrencies from the top 100 that experienced the most noticeable drops in price are shown in Fig. 3 and Table 1.3.
Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week (July 15-22, 2018)
|№||Coins and tokens||Symbol||Fall in price over the week, %||Average price in $ on July 22, 2018||Market capitalization, USD billion||Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week|
|1||Bitcoin Private||BTCP||-12.71%||$6.77||0.14||The overall market trend this week was positive, with most coins showing growth. Nevertheless, some coins fell slightly, by around 10%, which can be put down to volatility. |
The Bitcoin Private (BTCP) hard fork was a sort of “hard fork merger” of Bitcoin (BTC) and Zclassic (ZCL). This unconventional move led to the appearance of the new BTCP currency.
Ethos (ETHOS) is the digital token of a universal multicurrency wallet intended for the secure storage of digital currency alternatives.
KuCoin Shares is a digital currency that was created as a means of payment for users of the KuCoin exchange. All traders on the KuCoin exchange can pay their transaction fees using this coin.
Veritaseum (VERI) is a decentralized autonomous platform that works based on smart contracts.
The goal of the Mixin project is to make all blockchain apps accessible to mobile devices and to create a fast and convenient transaction network.
The Aion cryptocurrency is the digital token of a 3rd generation blockchain platform. The idea behind the 3rd generation platform is to create a site where various projects can “unite.”
Pundi X is a digital token based on a protocol that is part of the Pundi X ecosystem and acts as the means of payment on this platform.
VeChain is the marking of products, medicines, and other goods with a special QR code.
Nuls is the digital token of a multi-blockchain platform that offers a unique solution for integration of the activity of enterprises on blockchain. Thanks to the sophisticated smart contracts to be used on Nuls, the enterprise directors will be able to program their own business model into Nuls and bring it into service.
Ontology was launched by Onchain, a Chinese blockchain company that was also connected to NEO. “Ontology is a blockchain-based, decentralized accounting network that unites a distributed identification system, decentralized information exchange, distributed data interaction, protocols of decentralized procedures, distributed communities, decentralized accreditation, and various industrial modules.”
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The change in price was calculated based on average daily data
Table 1.4 shows events that took place from July 9-22, 2018, that had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.
Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, July 09-22, 2018
|№||Factors and events |
(link to source)
|Date of news||Description||Nature of impact||Type of impact|
|1.||CBOE Files with SEC for Bitcoin ETF [source: Bitcoinmagazine.com]||July 9, 2018||For several years the US Securities and Exchange Commission has consistently rejected applications to open Bitcoin ETFs. However, after the announcements by its representatives that bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, this situation may change.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|2.||Crypto Crime Is a Focus of Trump’s New Task Force on Consumer Fraud |
Crypto Crime Is a Focus of Trump’s New Task Force on Consumer Fraud [source: Bloomberg.com]
|July 11, 2018||US legislation is not very conducive to cryptocurrencies: all transactions are subject to taxes, and there are strict rules on cryptocurrency exchanges. The authorities are afraid that digital currencies are being used by criminals. Now a new task force will join the battle with fraudsters.||Market||Uncertain|
|3.||Wall Street-Backed Blockchain Company Weighs IPO, Sale [source: Bloomberg.com]||July 12, 2018||The organization is holding important negotiations with legal advisors, and rumor has it that potential buyers have already expressed interest in its proposal.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|4.||Binance Exchange Backs First-Ever Decentralized Bank in Malta [source: Coindesk.com]||July 12, 2018||Founders Bank will be the first decentralized bank in the world belonging to the cryptocurrency community. All token holders will be considered owners of the organization.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|5.||Bitcoin [BTC] Block Size Limit is Slowly Fading Away Ever Since SegWit Update [source: Ambcrypto.com]||July 13, 2018||According to plan: nearly a year after the introduction of the SegWit protocol, the block size in the bitcoin network now exceeds 1 MB. Transaction fees fell to a record low back in March.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|6.||American Express Thinks Blockchains Could Help Prove Payments [source: Coindesk.com]||July 15, 2018||The financial giant American Express is already working actively with Ripple, is using Hyperledger technology, and has filed several applications for its blockchain developments in the US Patent and Trademark Office. The new document concerns payment confirmation.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|7.||G20 Watchdog Develops ‘Vigilant’ Cryptocurrency Monitoring Framework [source: ccn.com]||July 16, 2018||The organization has developed a framework concept to track the impact of digital asset price volatility on the traditional financial market. That being said, G20 analysts are convinced that crypto assets do not pose significant risks to global financial security.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|8.||FFull Cryptocurrency Acquisition Marks a Historic Achievement for the Crypto Market [source: Cryptodisrupt.com]||July 16, 2018||The Singapore-based startup was the first company in the world to buy a controlling share using digital currency. This precedent may serve as an example for other market participants in the future.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|9.||Coinbase Confirms SEC Approval To List Digital Tokens As Securities [source: Coinspeaker.com]||July 17, 2018||American regulators have given Coinbase the go-ahead to list tokens as securities. To do so, the company will acquire several dealers that work with securities and create new business units.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|10.||Oracle Blockchain Cloud Service Now Available for All Potential Clients [source: Cryptovest.com]||July 18, 2018||Arab Jordan Investment Bank (AJIB), Indian Oil, the Nigeria Customs Service, CargoSmart, Certified Origins, Intelipost, MTO, Neurosoft, Sofbang, Solar Site Design, and Tradefin have already become Oracle Blockchain Cloud Service clients.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|11.||Samsung Accepts Cryptocurrency Payments in Three Baltic States [source: Coinjournal.net]||July 20, 2018||Clients in Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, and Kaunas can now purchase smartphones, tablets, notebooks, televisions, and other Samsung gadgets using digital coins.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|12.||South Korea Makes 2018 the Year of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Acceptance [source: Dailyhodl.com]||July 20, 2018||The Financial Innovation Bureau will be responsible for “new developments and challenges such as cryptocurrencies,” and will regulate the fintech sector.||Market||Uncertain|
|13.||Lightning Network Reaches 10,000 Channels And Total Capacity Of 100 Bitcoins [source: Hacked.com]||July 20, 2018||The volume of funds sold along Lightning channels increased over the month by 288%.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. In July the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) equaled from $4.6 billion to $9.6 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the daily ZAK-4 Crypto ranged from 2.5% to 4.8% of capitalization. The highest trading volume was seen on July 17-18.
Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from July 1-22, 2018)
|Crypto||Bitcoin (BTC)||Ethereum (ETH)||Bitcoin Cash (BCH)||Ripple (XRP)||4 Crypto|
|Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Volume (24h) 4 crypto||Market cap 4 crypto||ZAK-4 Crypto index|
|Date*||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||%|
|Jul 22, 2018||7 418||3.7||127.3||462||1.3||46.6||788||0.5||13.6||0.46||0.2||17.9||5.7||205.4||2.8%|
|Jul 21, 2018||7 353||3.7||126.2||451||1.5||45.4||768||0.5||13.2||0.45||0.2||17.5||5.9||202.4||2.9%|
|Jul 20, 2018||7 467||4.9||128.1||469||1.8||47.3||823||0.6||14.2||0.48||0.3||18.7||7.7||208.4||3.7%|
|Jul 19, 2018||7 378||5.1||126.6||481||2.1||48.4||828||0.7||14.3||0.49||0.3||19.1||8.2||208.5||3.9%|
|Jul 18, 2018||7 315||6.1||125.5||501||2.4||50.5||850||0.7||14.7||0.51||0.4||19.8||9.6||210.4||4.5%|
|Jul 17, 2018||6 740||6.0||115.6||480||2.3||48.4||803||0.8||13.8||0.48||0.3||18.9||9.4||196.7||4.8%|
|Jul 16, 2018||6 357||4.7||109.0||450||1.9||45.4||724||0.5||12.5||0.45||0.3||17.5||7.4||184.4||4.0%|
|Jul 15, 2018||6 273||3.3||107.6||436||1.4||43.9||703||0.3||12.1||0.44||0.2||17.2||5.1||180.8||2.8%|
|Jul 14, 2018||6 248||2.9||107.1||435||1.2||43.7||696||0.3||12.0||0.44||0.1||17.2||4.6||180.1||2.5%|
|Jul 13, 2018||6 235||3.8||106.9||431||1.5||43.4||687||0.4||11.8||0.44||0.2||17.1||5.8||179.2||3.3%|
|Jul 12, 2018||6 397||3.8||109.7||447||1.5||44.9||707||0.3||12.2||0.45||0.2||17.7||5.8||184.4||3.1%|
|Jul 11, 2018||6 331||3.6||108.5||435||1.4||43.7||689||0.3||11.9||0.45||0.2||17.5||5.6||181.6||3.1%|
|Jul 10, 2018||6 739||4.1||115.5||476||1.8||47.9||733||0.4||12.6||0.47||0.2||18.6||6.4||194.6||3.3%|
|Jul 9, 2018||6 775||3.7||116.1||489||1.5||49.2||752||0.3||12.9||0.48||0.2||18.7||5.8||197.0||2.9%|
|Jul 8, 2018||6 858||3.4||117.5||492||1.3||49.5||776||0.3||13.4||0.49||0.2||19.3||5.3||199.7||2.6%|
|Jul 7, 2018||6 669||4.0||114.3||474||1.4||47.7||737||0.8||12.7||0.48||0.2||18.8||6.3||193.4||3.3%|
|Jul 6, 2018||6 639||4.3||113.7||474||1.6||47.7||748||0.4||12.9||0.48||0.2||18.9||6.6||193.2||3.4%|
|Jul 5, 2018||6 600||5.0||113.1||467||1.8||47.0||763||0.5||13.1||0.49||0.3||19.3||7.6||192.4||3.9%|
|Jul 4, 2018||6 551||4.2||112.2||464||1.5||46.6||758||0.4||13.0||0.49||0.3||19.1||6.5||191.0||3.4%|
|Jul 3, 2018||6 597||4.7||113.0||475||1.7||47.8||775||0.5||13.3||0.49||0.4||19.1||7.2||193.2||3.8%|
|Jul 2, 2018||6 380||4.4||109.3||454||1.6||45.6||739||0.4||12.7||0.46||0.3||18.1||6.8||185.7||3.6%|
|Jul 1, 2018||6 412||4.8||109.8||455||1.5||45.7||749||0.6||12.9||0.47||0.3||18.3||7.1||186.7||3.8%|
All figures given as of 03:00 UTC of the corresponding day
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, EOS, and Cardano) fell to $6.7 billion by the end of last week (Table 1.5.b), or 3% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.
Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)
|Crypto||Stellar (XLM)||Cardano (ADA)||EOS (EOS)||Litecoin (LTC)||8 Crypto|
|Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Volume (24h)||Market cap||ZAK-8 Crypto index|
|Date||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||%|
|Jul 22, 2018||0.29||0.10||5.5||0.164||0.14||4.2||8.0||0.50||7.2||84||0.25||4.8||6.7||227.2||3.0%|
|Jul 21, 2018||0.27||0.10||5.1||0.162||0.13||4.2||7.9||0.55||7.1||83||0.25||4.8||7.0||223.5||3.1%|
|Jul 20, 2018||0.30||0.13||5.7||0.180||0.22||4.7||8.4||0.81||7.5||87||0.29||5.0||9.1||231.2||3.9%|
|Jul 19, 2018||0.30||0.19||5.6||0.179||0.22||4.6||8.6||0.85||7.7||87||0.31||5.0||9.7||231.3||4.2%|
|Jul 18, 2018||0.25||0.24||4.8||0.170||0.32||4.4||8.8||0.93||7.9||90||0.38||5.2||11.4||232.6||4.9%|
|Jul 17, 2018||0.24||0.06||4.5||0.155||0.13||4.0||8.1||0.85||7.2||84||0.34||4.8||10.7||217.3||4.9%|
|Jul 16, 2018||0.22||0.05||4.1||0.142||0.09||3.7||7.4||0.72||6.6||79||0.31||4.5||8.6||203.4||4.2%|
|Jul 15, 2018||0.21||0.05||3.9||0.137||0.05||3.6||7.0||0.50||6.3||77||0.23||4.4||5.9||198.9||3.0%|
|Jul 14, 2018||0.20||0.04||3.8||0.138||0.06||3.6||7.0||0.40||6.2||77||0.20||4.4||5.3||198.2||2.7%|
|Jul 13, 2018||0.19||0.05||3.5||0.127||0.09||3.3||6.9||0.59||6.2||77||0.26||4.4||6.8||196.7||3.5%|
|Jul 12, 2018||0.19||0.04||3.6||0.132||0.04||3.4||7.2||0.60||6.4||79||0.27||4.5||6.7||202.4||3.3%|
|Jul 11, 2018||0.19||0.03||3.6||0.129||0.05||3.3||7.2||0.60||6.5||76||0.28||4.4||6.5||199.4||3.3%|
|Jul 10, 2018||0.21||0.04||3.9||0.140||0.06||3.6||7.8||0.71||6.9||81||0.32||4.6||7.6||213.7||3.5%|
|Jul 9, 2018||0.21||0.04||4.0||0.145||0.04||3.8||8.7||0.71||7.8||83||0.26||4.7||6.8||217.2||3.2%|
|Jul 8, 2018||0.21||0.04||3.9||0.150||0.05||3.9||9.0||0.49||8.1||86||0.24||4.9||6.1||220.5||2.8%|
|Jul 7, 2018||0.21||0.04||3.9||0.146||0.05||3.8||8.7||0.49||7.8||83||0.24||4.8||7.1||213.6||3.3%|
|Jul 6, 2018||0.20||0.04||3.8||0.149||0.07||3.9||8.9||0.60||8.0||84||0.25||4.8||7.5||213.6||3.5%|
|Jul 5, 2018||0.21||0.04||3.9||0.152||0.07||3.9||8.9||0.96||8.0||86||0.31||4.9||9.0||213.2||4.2%|
|Jul 4, 2018||0.21||0.03||3.9||0.150||0.09||3.9||8.9||0.94||7.9||85||0.28||4.9||7.8||211.5||3.7%|
|Jul 3, 2018||0.21||0.05||4.0||0.159||0.11||4.1||8.9||1.01||8.0||85||0.34||4.9||8.8||214.1||4.1%|
|Jul 2, 2018||0.20||0.05||3.8||0.143||0.16||3.7||8.1||1.02||7.3||80||0.30||4.6||8.3||205.0||4.1%|
|Jul 1, 2018||0.19||0.04||3.6||0.138||0.11||3.6||8.2||0.62||7.3||82||0.34||4.7||8.2||205.9||4.0%|
Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.
Table 1.6. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future
|Factors and events |
(link to source)
|Date of news||Description||Nature of impact||Type of impact|
|1.||Walmart Files Patent to Use Blockchain in Securing Package Deliveries [source: The-blockchain.com]||July 10, 2018||Walmart continues to implement blockchain in its work. A system to conserve electricity, one to reduce delivery times, a register of all information on goods, and now a network of remote-controlled lockers.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|2.||South Korean Regulators to Introduce New Rules for Crypto and Blockchain [source: Cointelegraph.com]||July 11, 2018||South Korean politicians do not have a clear position on regulation of cryptocurrencies and ICOs. However, one might appear after the debates to be held by the end of July. The politicians intend to discuss a set of draft laws to regulate this sector.||Market||Uncertain|
|3.||Hong Kong Launches Blockchain-Based Trade Finance [source: ft.com]||July 15, 2018||The new site will make it possible to reduce transaction time tenfold, and will free banks from bureaucracy by allowing them to switch to electronic document management.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|4.||Swiss Stock Exchange Operator ‘Open’ to Cryptocurrency Trading on New Exchange [source: ccn.com]||July 16, 2018||It is no accident that Switzerland is called one of the friendliest countries to the crypto world. The Crypto Valley in Zug, voting on blockchain, and now the first crypto platform from the country’s leading stock exchange.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
1.2 Market trends
The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from December 31, 2017, to July 22, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5).
Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs
|Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD million||Fig. 1.1||This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from December 31, 2017.|
|The rate of market change (as a % to the beginning of 2017)||Fig. 1.1||This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to December 31, 2017.|
|Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to previous period)||Fig. 1.2||This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.|
|The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period)||Fig. 1.2||This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.|
|Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets||Fig. 1.3||This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of July 22, 2018, this number had already reached 1,578 (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered).|
|Average market capitalization, USD million||Fig. 1.3||This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.|
|Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization||Fig. 1.4, 1.5||This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.|
* NB! Average daily data are given in the graphs below. For this reason, the figures in the graphs may differ from the data in Table 1.1, where all figures were calculated at 03:00 UTC.
These differences in the values may be significant during periods of high cryptocurrency market volatility.
Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization
Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from December 31, 2017, to July 22, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization dropped from $572.5 billion to $282 billion, i.e. by 51%. Last week (July 15-22, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization increased from $250.7 billion to $282 billion (as of July 22, 2018, based on the average daily figures from coinmarketcap.com).
Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization
The market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. Nine of the thirteen weeks in the first quarter of 2018 were “in the red,” i.e. capitalization fell based on the results of each of these weeks, and the weekly fluctuations ranged from USD -136 billion to USD +250 billion.
Six of the thirteen weeks in the second quarter were “in the red.” The market grew based on the results of the other seven weeks. As noted earlier, a growth was seen in April, while in May and June there was generally a reduction in capitalization. The weekly fluctuations ranged from USD -72 billion to USD +62.2 billion.
Two of the three past weeks of the third quarter saw an increase in cryptocurrency market capitalization (with due account of average daily data of coinmarketcap.com, see Fig. 1.2).
Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets
Since December 31, 2017, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets considered when calculating market capitalization has increased from 1,335 to 1,578. Over the past week their number increased from 1,569 to 1,578, and average capitalization increased to $178.7 million. In total, over the past month 70 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com. However, it should be noted that a number of other coins and tokens were also excluded from the list. Among the tokens that were added to coinmarketcap.com last week, LemoChain, ContentBox, Elysian, Engagement Token, and Hashgard showed high trading volumes.
Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization
The year 2017 is rightfully considered the year of the cryptocurrency, but the first six months of 2018 have brought ICO volumes to a new level. However, the buzz surrounding the cryptocurrency and ICO markets was gradually replaced with a period of reflection and the adoption of more informed decisions and strategies. In this period a more detailed market analysis is required for decision-making, a mature marketing policy is essential, business processes must become more efficient, legal norms have to be observed, and a clear behavioral strategy must be established.
The fall in cryptocurrency market capitalization by more than half since the start of the year has begun to have an effect on the volume of funds collected via ICOs and their development. Many startups were counting on an expanding market and the resulting increase in demand for their technologies and products. Naturally, this has led to a fall in their performance, and in certain cases to their failure. According to the estimates of the Satis Group dated July 11, 2018: around 80% of ICOs were identified as scams. The research performed by Boston College gave a less severe assessment of ICOs: 56% of ICOs died within four months after the completion of their token sales, meaning only 44.2% of startups survive after 120 days from the end of their ICOs. As Bloomberg reports: “Dead Coins lists around 800 tokens that are bereft of life, while Coinopsy estimates that more than 1,000 have bought the farm.”
The crypto mining sector also has its problems. In particular, the cloud service HashFlare terminated the mining of BTC because mining “continues being unprofitable.”
At the same time, former Trump aide Steve Bannon owns bitcoin and is working on the issue of his own cryptocurrency. Billionaire Mark Lasry expects the bitcoin price to grow to $40,000. In his column for Forbes, Clem Chambers, CEO of the British financial market website ADVFN, calls Bitcoin a logarithmic asset and speculates that bitcoin may return to its $20,000 price, and then increase to $200,000 or even $2 million, “if the market mechanism of the asset remains viral.”
Institutional support for cryptocurrencies is also developing. In Singapore they have launched the state-owned blockchain trading platform Open Trade Blockchain, which allows transactions to be performed and decentralized apps to be created.
On July 20, 2018 (+8 UTC), Huobi introduced a platform for creating cryptocurrency exchanges. Huobi Group announced the official start of its cloud business division, which will endeavor to provide a universal solution for the exchange of digital assets, enabling its partners to quickly establish the secure and stable exchange of digital assets.
“The first decentralized stock exchange” opened in Malta. The decentralized Maltese bank will launch two trade platforms together with Binance and OKEx.
Finally, the latest rating of cryptocurrencies from the China Center for Information Industry Development (CCID) was released. A rating was assigned to 31 cryptocurrencies. EOS took first place, Ethereum was in second, Nebulas was in third, while bitcoin came in a distant 16th. The three leaders in the previous CCID rating were EOS, Ethereum, and NEO.
Annex – Glossary
|Market capitalization||Value of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].|
|Cryptocurrency market capitalization||The market value of an individual coin or token circulating on the market.|
|Total cryptocurrency market capitalization||The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and digital assets, i.e. the aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) circulating on the market.|
|Dominance||Market share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (coin, token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.|
|Not Mineable||A coin that is not mineable. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.|
|Pre-mined||A pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.|
|The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)||The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.|
|The growth rate of the market (as a % to the beginning of the year)||The rate of market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.|
|Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)||Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.|
|The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period)||The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.|
|The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period)||The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.|
|Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets||Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. At the beginning of 2018 over 1,300 cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) were circulating on the market.|
|Average market capitalization||Average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.|
|ZAK-n Crypto index||The index is calculated as a percentage and represents a ratio between the trading volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization. |
ZAK-4 Crypto index calculations include four dominant cryptocurrencies with the greatest market capitalization: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple.
ZAK-8 Crypto index calculations include the trading volume and market capitalization for eight cryptocurrencies.
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