Bitcoin bulls are losing control again and the Bitcoin price is back where the rally took off. The rally started on 13th July, when the price formed a low of 6081 and there were some serious concerns that the price could break below the 6K mark. The bitcoin price started to consolidate from July 19th to July 23rd and traded in a range of 7236 - 7780. It was on the 25th July that the bitcoin price reached a high of $8,480 making investors confident about the possibility of touching the $10K. However, the price retraced from this level and we are back in the consolidation range mentioned above.
It is very well known that the recent surge in its price was mainly due to the following reasons and I have mentioned this here
- Institutional investors coming on board
- Bitcoin ETF coming soon
- Bulls are back in town
However, the request for the Bitcoin ETF, which was backed by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, was rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Many have said that the reason it was rejected by the SEC was because the department is still sceptical about the cryptocurrency market. The reality is that the SEC is only sceptical about the ETF structure presented by Winklevoss. The department is still in a process of considering several other applications for crypto ETFs and the fact is that Bitcoin futures are trading on two exchanges. Therefore, it is nearly impossible that we will not see Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC.
Speaking of bulls, here is something which needs attention. Firstly, Bitcoin volatility has started to spike. This could attract speculators who breathe on higher volatility. The 30-day volatility formed a bottom back in May 2018.
Talking about bulls and bears, it is important to look at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission report. Every Friday, the CFTC releases its report on Bitcoin’s active future. The report breaks down the short and long positions. Moreover, it further categorizes them as Non-commercial, commercial and non-reportable positions. The difference between them can be read here.
The chart below tells a very compelling story. In panel 2 of the chart, we have the bitcoin price. It shows an important buy zone; a zone where the price has entered and moved back out, from $6,600 to $5,796. The significance of this is that institutions are heavily involved in buying at this level. The evidence of this is in the first panel of the chart. It shows the net positions for Bitcoin futures. Unfortunately for the bulls, the pressure is still on the sell side as the net positions show that there are more sellers than buyers in the market.
However, the important element is that these net positions are at the lowest point when the price is trading in the buy zone mentioned above. Hence, it is evident, that even among bears, there are those not willing to hold their positions when the price is in the buy zone, or they prefer to join the bulls.
Disclosure: I hold Bitcoins