February 2019 Outlook For Monero XMR

By February 18, 2019 Bitcoin Business
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Summary

Monero, along with most of the crypto market, exploded today (Feb. 18), but it remained fairly neutral with a BTC trading pair.

Despite some technical scares, Monero has maintained a strong position as a leader in privacy coins.

Technical analysis shows that the XMR/BTC trading pair will likely stay in consolidation, though the market will determine XMR's USD trading value.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Coin Agora. Get started today »

Monero (XMR-USD) presently finds itself locked in a two-month-old channel consolidation in trading with its Bitcoin (BTC-USD) pairing. With price currently at the middle of the channel where an internal trendline exists, the channel is still some way from resolution, which complicates the picture on the charts. This analysis will try to decipher what price action may do in the next two weeks leading to the end of February 2019. Long term, we still like Monero as a tech play in the future of privacy coins.

Fundamental Outlook

It has been a mixed year for Monero as far as news is concerned. On one hand, we have a report from Semantec which indicates that some users had unknowingly downloaded some cryptojacking apps from the Microsoft store, and these malicious apps had been secretly mining Monero coins. This is just another addition to the recent attacks that many crypto coins and exchanges have had to endure in the last month.

On a more positive note, Edge wallet just reported that the exchange transaction between Monero and Bitcoin, the two cryptos whose pairing is discussed in this analysis, has become the most popular on the ShapeShift trading exchange.

Technical Outlook

The long-term technical outlook for Monero’s pairing with Bitcoin as seen on the weekly chart shows the price action locked in an ascending channel, with price pushing downward from the upper boundary of this channel. This channel has been two months in formation.

Description: C:\Users\PC\Documents\Eric Grant\Stock_images\New folder\Feb2019_XMRBTC_wkly.png

XMR/BTC Weekly Chart: February 15, 2019

To get a microscopic view of price action, we head down to the daily chart where we see price action being defined by an internal resistance line within the borders of the channel.

Description: C:\Users\PC\Documents\Eric Grant\Stock_images\New folder\Feb2019_XMRBTC_dly.png

XMR/BTC Daily Chart: Feb. 14, 2019

We see that price action was initially resisted by the internal trendline before a break above this line occurred earlier in the week. Price pulled back downward to this trendline, where it performed a role reversal and has supported price action.

The presence of this internal trendline makes the picture a bit complicated. In a channel, price is expected to trade from one boundary to another, but with the trendline, price has obviously taken off from the trendline without reaching the lower channel boundary. The trendline may therefore serve as an impediment for any downward movements from the channel’s upper boundary.

So what's the outlook for XMR/BTC as we head into the second half of the month of February 2019?

Trade Scenario 1

The first scenario assumes that price will continue on to the upper boundary of the channel after bouncing from the internal trendline. On getting to the upper boundary, price will either be rejected at that boundary or price will break it. A breakout will only be confirmed by an increase in buying volume at the upper boundary and a 3% upside penetration of the upper boundary by the breakout price candle/bar. But if these parameters are not fulfilled, price will head back down to the internal trendline and if possible, the lower channel boundary. It must be kept in view that a time will come when the internal trendline will merge with the lower channel border, strengthening this area as a potential price support.

Trade Scenario 2

A look at the weekly chart will show that price was downtrending before the channel formed. Some may look at this in a holistic manner and decide that this may actually be a bearish flag. In this case, the expectation is for price to break below the channel’s lower border on the weekly chart. However, this move may take between two to three weeks to occur, if indeed it will eventually happen. General market bearishness may support this move if that's the sentiment when price hits the lower channel border. If indeed a downside break occurs, the projected price move will equal the length of the downtrending price action which preceded the channel.

Market Sentiment:

The long-term and mid-term outlook of the XMR/BTC pair is:

  • Long-Term – neutral
  • Mid-term – neutral

Price developments in XMR/BTC will be dependent on market sentiment seen across the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, traders have to watch the news to get some direction on what price action will be.

We may need to wait for one more week of price action in order to get some clarity as to the long-term and medium-term outlook.

You can trade for Monero using Binance—the suggested exchange for new crypto buyers and traders.

Well, the crypto craze may have deflated. But that's not a bad thing! In fact, if you still believe in the transformative power of blockchain, it means that many of these technologies are back to early adopter prices. At the Coin Agora, our focus is on altcoins - the smaller cap cryptos that have massive potential to disrupt business ecosystems. Don't miss out—the price craze may return in 2019 and it's your chance to get in now. Let us help you cut through the noise and find winners - join the Coin Agora community today!

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Monero, along with most of the crypto market, exploded today (Feb. 18), but it remained fairly neutral with a BTC trading pair.

Despite some technical scares, Monero has maintained a […]

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