As of late, bitcoin – the granddaddy of all crypto – is once again experiencing small bursts of bearish behavior. At press time, the currency has fallen roughly $200 since yesterday afternoon, and is now trading for less than $10,150.
And yet, there are many analysts out there that seem to believe the bulls aren’t quite done yet. Some suggest that an entirely new bull run is about to enter the crypto market, and bitcoin is going to surge beyond our wildest dreams.
So, why do they think this? What’s making them believe that bitcoin is not done surging, and what evidence do they have that serves their hypotheses?
While we may not be able to see it, Hans Hauge – a senior qualitative researcher for the crypto investment firm Ikigai – says that bitcoin is behaving in a way similar with this time of year during 2017, just months before it exploded to roughly $20,000 per unit. In a series of Twitter posts, Hauge explains:
Our current level of reserve risk is equivalent to where we were in the early part of 2017. That was right before things got crazy and six to nine months before the bubble burst. Bitcoin was around $1,000 to $2,000 at the time. Bitcoin bubble tops are clearly identified with a dark red cluster of adjusted binary bitcoin days destroyed. Until that happens, we’re not at the top. Public opinion is key here because that red cluster is caused by the assumption of the crowd and is self-fulfilling.
Hauge went on to say that crypto-based fear and greed indexes are considerably low, thus paving the way for further spikes. Bitcoin is based on speculation, and so long as its audience believes in it, it has a chance of doing well. He explains:
[The Bitcoin] Crypto Fear and Greed [Index] is printing all-time lows. That’s the exact thing you should be looking for if you’re buying the dip for the long-term.
It’s unknown where bitcoin will go in the immediate future, though for the most part, this bullish sentiment seems to be striking analysts from every corner of the space. Venture capitalist Tim Draper, for example, has long proposed that bitcoin will spike to more than $250,000 by the year 2022, though he’s recently pushed his prediction back a few months.
In addition, men like Tom Lee of Fundstrat fame are still predicting massive moves for bitcoin by the end of the year. Considering we’re about to enter September and there are only four months left before 2020 shows its face, it’s hard to fully believe that bitcoin could maneuver itself into such high territory (i.e. $40,000 per coin) in so short a period, though that’s precisely what it did in 2017 – spiking from $5,000 in September to just under $20,000 by Christmas.
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