It’s a well known saying that if you put money in the stock market, you are (practically) guaranteed a profit after any given 10 years. Bitcoin, however, is known for being more of a 4chan-inspired long shot, which could either blow up and make fiat redundant or slowly drift into irrelevance.
In the meantime, however, new analysis from Bitcoin Economics.io suggests that Warren Buffet might have been a bit harsh in his assessment of Bitcoin as a gamble, not an investment.
The stats indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) holders make a profit after an average of 1,335 days, which equates to about three years and eight months.
How long do you have to hold Bitcoin to make a 100% sure profit? According to my analysis it is 1335 days or 3 years and 8 months. pic.twitter.com/Dt1FIMIAvz
— BitcoinEconomics.io (@BitcoinEcon) September 8, 2019
As reported by Coin Telegraph, “The data roughly correlates to the four-year cycle length based on reward halving periods.”
Crypto New Media also helped unpack the findings, explaining that, “While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1,150.”
“Buying in right at the top would have meant it took until early 2017 before BTC finally broke that level again,” Crypto New Media added. “Missing the peak of that rally would have resulted in a substantially reduced wait for a profit.”
“Holding Bitcoin for 317 days would have given a 75% chance of profit. There was a 60% chance of profit if Bitcoin was held for 35 days, and the likelihood that you were up over any single day was 50%.”
For comparison, consider this: to get a sure profit on the fiat stock market, an investor would have needed to hold their position for 23 years.
Not only that but as Crypto New Media points out, “This analysis purely looks at the chance of profit and not the scale of that profit.” So when Bitcoin is on a bull run, its profits will dwarf those achievable on stock market indices.
However, before you get all googly-eyed (and start filling your purse with Bitcoin) remember that crypto investments still carry a much higher risk of falling flat on their face than legacy ones – at least for the time being.