The rain is giving way to sun in Britain, with the two taking turns almost hourly in an encapsulation of the very historic decision that faces the country.
As far as the pound is concerned, it is sunny. A deal brexit keeps things as they are for at least 12 months and paves the way for a “deep and special partnership” between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
What sort of partnership, how deep and how special, are things to be discussed in 2020. The question for parliament tomorrow is whether such discussions should even start.
The decision is most difficult, but the country seems to be clearly swinging towards passing it.
Polls, polls and statistical lies, one can easily say, with few likely holding a strong view on whether it should pass, but Brussels appears to be doing everything it can to pressure parliament to get it over.
That’s of course qualified with an expression of sadness that Brexit happened, but their acts this week have made it very unclear just how sad exactly, if at all.
France in particular appears to be somewhat keen to say good riddance. That’s probably because they want an acceleration of internal integration which UK could have slowed down.
Nigel Farage, the banker politician, is livid. He’ll be out of a job if this passes. The Brexit Party so becoming yet another UKIP for the BNP sorts. To that, we’ll gladly say good riddance.
Labour is in a deep predicament. They thought if only this brexit thing was over, they could really compete on other matters. Now that they have the chance to get it over with, at least its beginning, they have a three line whip against it.
To leavers they’re for remain. To remainers they’re for leave. To everyone they’re for everything, and thus all think they’re for nothing.
Some think they’re for breaking up the union. For propping SNP into power. Hence tensions with Libdems in the rebel alliance.
There’s no good decision labour can make unless they come out for leave – making them formally not an opposition party at all – or for remain, losing leave seats and more importantly cramming into a space Libdems have already laid their flag on.
For Libdems, there’s no bad decision they can make. All know they stand for Europe. The question is just what is better for Europe in this case.
If they vote for the deal they’d be easily open for attack, but Europe wants the deal to pass. They’d obviously rather UK remains, so if they vote against it no one would blame them.
Libdems job so being easy. Providing proper opposition by standing for Europe, an issue that will continue to remain relevant especially for the next twelve months.
SNP’s job is easy too. For them it is probably more of: secretly hope the deal passes so that they can get a new Hadrian Wall.
After so much was done to avoid a border in Northern Ireland, they want one in Scotland, and they think they’ll win.
For Northern Irelands’ DUP the job is easy too. Vote against it to take no blame if it doesn’t turn out great.
Yet, they are unionists, and as unionists of course what parliament decides is fully legitimate. Not least because unlike anyone else Northern Ireland itself will have a vote on whether they want a border, with the decision fully theirs.
And thus British democracy. Still strong. Still something to be admired. Especially in Hong Kong, or Spain, or any other country where peaceful means are not given to difficult decisions.
And this is the most difficult decision, in some ways. For if the vote passes it’s a new reality, even a new dawn.
An optimistic dawn you’d hope for if it passes all hopefully would rally behind this idea of a United Europe in a very close alliance with the United Kingdom with it good, and perhaps even better, for both.
The focus may then well turn towards a humiliated Farage, who kindly would be waved off the parliament he hates and into the irrelevance he deserves.
And may well turn towards securing a “deep and special partnership” that has UK and EU almost merge economically, with the British and French army perhaps merging even further than they have already.
A proud and loud European Britain, doing the continent a favor by stopping meddling in its internal affairs, while standing with it in the world stage in a closer union than with even the far more distant America.
There are dangers but if the vote passes we’ll have to avoid them. We’ll have to focus more on a new sense of confidence among the British young as well as French, German or Italian ones, hand in hand as Europeans.
For this is not just a decision. It’s a structural change, a direction, even a vision. It’s a new era.
It can even be a golden era, but not by itself. We’ll have to work for it and very hard, in this space and other spaces, including space itself which we now see livestreamed from newly launched rockets, big and small, for mars and just for satellite stations.
Britain once more can show the way of just how democracy works, peacefully, to the benefit of all, big or small.
As can Europe, and perhaps even the political class for once which might work more towards building things rather than breaking them apart.
In building a united Europe. In building economic integration. In building more free market for small to medium businesses and less for the giant corporations. In building a green world. In building the manufacturing base by investing in new tech. In building peace in Israel, the entire middle east, and the whole world.
Dreams. It’s where it starts. And can be realized if we all work towards it. If we close the chapter of the last two decades. If we end this us vs them, this distinction on anything but merit. Regardless of what nation or station.
If the vote doesn’t pass then all of this maybe would just be delayed because there isn’t much reason to think the people wouldn’t vote for this deal after what might at times be shameful rhetoric.
Just get it over with. Let’s see first where Europe goes. Let’s see what actual deal can be reached next year. Let’s see whether the optimistic vision or the devils geopolitics prevail.
Then the people can vote again either for a straight referendum – without the muh democracy complains – or for a government that wants to merge more without formally being part of EU.
Or it can be revisited when Northern Ireland has their vote depending on the outcome. Or at any point really depending on what happens.
Things would at least move and at the end of it maybe it was the right decision because of the pound, maybe a close union while not formally part of it is better for Europe too.
The Bitcoin Barometer?
As it happens this will be decided tomorrow when traditional markets are closed, but of course not bitcoin.
Bitcoin usually doesn’t correlate with any asset, but in major events it might be used as an early signal, with an inverse correlation in this case.
If a deal passes then presumably it would be reflected on the chart, but which way exactly is not very clear because we don’t know how the market will judge it if it’s a reality.
If a deal doesn’t pass you’d think it would roar, but just a day to go now until we know.
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