Canadians today are headed to the poll in what has been called the closest election in the country’s history with Justin Trudeau fighting for his political life as polls suggest his Liberal Party is neck and neck with conservatives.
A poll average by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation showed the Liberals narrowly leading by 0.4 per cent with none expected to get a majority.
“If Conservatives win the most seats – but not a majority – they are expected to try to form a government with the backing of Quebec’s separatist Bloc Quebecois party. Mr Trudeau’s Liberals would likely rely on the New Democrats to stay in power,” says the Independent.
The ethereum based Augur betting market, however, does not think it is so close, giving Trudeau a 70% chance of either outright winning or doing so with a coalition.
The above might look a bit complex as it’s slightly different from traditional markets, but this is saying Trudeau had a 50% chance last Tuesday, with it increasing since.
So if you bet one eth and Trudeau does win or does manage to form a coalition by the 1st of December, then you get 0.3 eth.
If the last liberal leader in the english speaking world loses instead, so turning all of the five eyes blue, you’d get 0.7 eth if you had bet no.
That’s the simple bit. There isn’t a “no.” The no in this case is you selling yes because this yes is an actual token. So you’re exchanging eth in return for this “token” which then distributes the winnings based on a smart contract for this specific market.
Assuming now we’re on December the 2nd, whether those that bought yes or sold yes win depends on how many people stake for the yes or no outcome.
Usually they agree, but if they disagree this goes to some sort of twilight zone with two smart contracts where there are two parallel “universes” with users expected to choose the “correct” one.
This all happened during the mid-term election last year when some technicality added a bit of complexity to the betting market for who would control the house by a certain date.
In this bet too there could be arguments if it has to go to a coalition depending on whether it is finalized or there’s just an agreement by December 1st.
Overall though the question seems fairly tight, with the volumes here quite reasonable too as the Brexit vote on Saturday in the far bigger Betfair had volumes of about $200,000.
Betfair is a centralized traditional company, while Augur is literally just code, just a smart contract running on ethereum, with no managers or directors or… well no humans, except for those that interact with the contract by buying or selling this token, and thus so betting.