Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Nations Turning Away from the Dollar Benefit Bitcoin?
Korin, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” segment yesterday to discuss what she described as “major movers” away from the dollar. For the analyst, one of the main motives driving countries to de-dollarise is potential censorship by Washington.
Korin argues that dollar dependence leaves nations wishing to do trade with those sanctioned by the US at risk of punishment by Washington. She mentioned the current US sanctions against Iran prohibiting big European companies from trading with the nation.
Through sheer convenience, most global trade is conducted in US dollars. However, dollar payments are cleared through US banks and are subject to the censorship of that bank (which is in turn behest to the Federal government). This means that transactions between entities that might have nothing to do with America are subject to US jurisdiction.
Of course, Bitcoin use is free from the kind of financial censorship that is seen in examples like Argentina’s recent dollar buying restrictions, payment networks terminating services to certain political groups around the world over the years, and the examples mentioned by Korin to CNBC. However, it still a huge leap to think that Bitcoin would suddenly be favoured by the planet’s most powerful nations.
That said, what Korin’s interview does highlight is that financial censorship isn’t just a matter for those living under authoritarian regimes or times of immense economic strife. Some of the most powerful nations on the planet are starting to kick back at Washington’s control over global finance.
One of the symptoms of this urge to de-dollarise is China’s own efforts to internationalise the yuan. The analyst cited the nation’s launch of yuan-denominated crude oil futures as evidence of this. Whilst admitting that 90 percent of oil trade is still done in dollars, Korin said:
“If you have a sort of a beginning to crumble away [at] the dominance of the dollar over oil trade, that’s a nudge in the direction of de-dollarisation.”
In terms of the future, Korin said that she didn’t know how the situation would play out and could only say that it was “unsustainable.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 10,034.10.
The projected lower bound is: 8,156.74.
The projected closing price is: 9,095.42.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.1484. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -70.790 at 9,120.000. Volume was 68% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,865.12 8,771.78 9,028.53
Volatility: 109 70 79
Volume: 80,204 80,830 85,304
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 1.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
Korin, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” […]