December Outlook On Tron

By December 5, 2019Bitcoin Business
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Summary

Tron has struggled with the rest of the market in late 2019, especially after some social media fallout around its founder Justin Sun.

Sun continues to make headlines with rumors of acquisitions and teases on tech updates.

Technical analysis shows a possible bullish breakout on Tron's BTC trading pair in the short-term, fading as time passes however.

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Tron (TRX-USD) had taken a huge hit after the media fall out following a botched lunch date between TRON Founder Justin Sun and super investor Warren Buffett. However, TRX/BTC benefited from the floundering performance of Bitcoin to stage a recovery. It's also able to tout a large group of users, mobilized by social media marketing.

TRX/BTC is now at a critical juncture as it prepares for what could be a breakout move from the pattern on the daily chart. So what is the outlook for TRX/BTC as we head into the home stretch of the year?

Fundamental Analysis

Perhaps the biggest news of the week was a deleted tweet by the Poloniex exchange in which it encouraged its users to start buying TRON. This tweet was deleted a short while after it was posted and was apparently captured by Crypto_Deleted_Tweets before it was taken down.

This has further added to the speculation that Justin Sun may be making a move to acquire the Poloniex exchange. However, the latest information on this happens to be a report by Cointelegraph on an apparent purchase of TRON's largest non-custodial exchange by Poloniex. This was confirmed by Justin Sun himself in a tweet put out on November 29, 2019, with a rebranding of the exchange to Poloni DEX.

Whatever effect that these news releases may have had on TRON may still come into play in the medium-term. However, the price activity of Bitcoin in its pairing with the USD is what will dominate price moves in the short term.

Technical Analysis for TRX/BTC

For the technical analysis of TRX/BTC, we go straight to the daily chart where we see that price has formed a symmetrical triangle which has so far continued to restrict the latest price action. The consolidation within the triangle corresponds to the present lull in the price movement of BTCUSD, which continues to trade around the 7200 - 7400 price range.

Price is now pushing at the upper triangle border, which has managed to offer a resistance to further upside. So what is the outlook for TRX/BTC?

Outlook for TRX/BTC

Following the principles of technical analysis, the triangle is expected to end in an upside breakout, since price entered the triangle from below. Price is now more than 60% of the distance between the triangle base and the apex, meaning that a breakout is imminent.

TRX/BTC Daily Chart: December 2, 2019

An upside break of the symmetrical triangle is expected to occur with a measured move that should extend all the way to the 2nd upside target at 0.00000270. This is the price level at which previous lows were found on June 28 and July4, and are expected act in role reversal. The initial target would however be at 0.00000241, which is where previous highs occurred on July 26 and October 29. Further upside momentum above 0.00000270 targets 0.00000309, which is the price level at which previous highs of July2 and 8 occur.

On the flip side, we may see TRX/BTC pull lower if Bitcoin gains some strength in the market, which opens up the door to 0.00000180 (Aug 7 and October 27 lows), with possibility of attainment of August 16 /29 and September 29 lows of 0.00000160 if downward pressure persists in the market.

The resolution of this triangle is expected to occur this week if all goes according to plan. However, 1 or 2 days of price oscillation within the triangle cannot be ruled out.

Sentiment

  • Long-term: bearish
  • Medium-term: neutral
  • Short-term: bullish

Technically speaking, TRX/BTC is still in a downtrend; it is yet to trade substantially above its listing price, which is where it crashed to from its November 2017 all-time highs. The focus should however be on the short-term sentiment, which is presently bullish even as BTC continues to falter against the US Dollar.

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Disclosure: I am/we are long TRX-USD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tron has struggled with the rest of the market in late 2019, especially after some social media fallout around its founder Justin Sun.

Sun continues to make headlines with rumors […]

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