The cryptocurrency exchange known as Bitfinex is often the playground chosen for many whale traders, who take up large positions in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using leverage to amplify their returns.
Typically, the ratio between longs and shorts is somewhat similar, with a slight edge going to longs due to how overly bullish crypto investors tend to be. However, the balance between the two types of traders has spiked in one direction, causing longs to completely dominate shorts on the platform. But what exactly does this mean for Bitcoin price, and is this bullish or bearish?
Longs and Shorts Reach 90/10 Ratio on Crypto Exchange
In a first for the cryptocurrency market, the ratio of longs and shorts on cryptocurrency margin trading platform Bitfinex have jumped to dominate 90% of the open positions on the exchange.
The ratio typically leans slightly toward longs but hasn’t reached these sort of extremes in the past.
Much of the long positions were taken by a lone crypto whale, who before yesterday morning’s rally and $1,000 surge, was underwater by as much as $25 million as Bitcoin price had fallen down to $6,450 before rebounding.
The whale is still down over $10 million at current prices, but considering how stacked long positions are on the platform, the whale and many other traders are fully expecting Bitcoin price to go up in the near term.
But Is This Phenomenon Bullish or Bearish for Bitcoin?
Some analysts conclude that the metric is meaningless, and Bitfinex doesn’t move the market the same way BitMEX does, or that because Bifinex uses low leverage, these traders are less at risk of a squeeze of any type or liquidation.
However, there’s no denying that when market sentiment reaches an extreme, like the metric suggests, the market makes a contrarian move, causing maximum pain. The abundance of longs could suggest that traders would be underprepared and unsuspecting of a powerful move lower, which could cause a cascade of stops being hit, and a sizable long squeeze.
Or, the spike in the metric could be among the most bullish signals yet that Bitcoin’s next bull market is close, as traders on the platform feel the asset has reached a low enough price point, where they’re not concerned that the price will drop so significantly that it would result in liquidation or being forced to close out at a loss.
Indicators on the BTCUSDLONGS chart are suggesting that a massive pullback in long positions is far overdue, and will soon be closing. But longs only close when they’re at risk of further loss, or if they’re already sitting in much profit. We’ll soon find out the answer to what causes these longs to close, if at all, or if they’re held all along Bitcoin’s next bull run.