Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, And LTC Rally Fades: What’s Next?

By January 26, 2020 Bitcoin Business
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In this photo illustration a Cryptocurrency Bitcoin logo...
INDIA - 2020/01/23: In this photo illustration a Cryptocurrency Bitcoin logo seen displayed on a

Fortunes are changing in cryptocurrency markets. A rally that began three weeks ago lost steam last week.

By Saturday evening, Bitcoin was down 6.43%, ETH was down 7.38%, XRP was down 8.44%, and LTC dropped 11.20%. Bitcoin slid back towards the key $8,000-mark.

The retreat was board with only 18 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies advancing and 82 dropping.

That's a significant change from the previous when 90 cryptocurrencies advanced out of the top 100.

And it came as the spread of coronavirus unsettled financial markets.

That should have come as a surprise to digital asset experts. Bitcoin has emerged as a safe-haven asset in times of global uncertainties, according to some studies. And should have been rallying rather than retreating last week.

Bitcoin Price YTD
koyfin_20200126_081340494 Koyfin

Is Bitcoin's pull-back just the pause of the rally or something more serious?

Christopher Brookins, Founder and CIO at Valiendero Digital Assets, thinks that Bitcoin is re-affirming his previous position that the rally takes a "breather."

"At the time of writing, the Hurst Exponent is still recovering from oversold levels and its recent "breather," with a value of 0.52,” he says. “The resumption in upward trajectory after its brief consolidation and value still being far from overbought territory bodes well for price in the near to mid-term."

Brookins' estimates apply the Hurst exponent (H) model, which is rooted in mathematics founded by Benoit Mandelbrot, to determine if a financial market is trending or not.

Local Estimated Hurst Coefficients
Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.40.21 PM Christopher Brookins

He's watching the $8400 (short-Kumo Cloud) and $8600 (long-Kumo Cloud), but he remains bullish in the digital currency, in the face of the upcoming halving.

And he sticks in his previous prediction that ETH price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period, and that will lag behind BTC.

"As stated prior, given the dramatic reversal in Hurst values to overbought, ETH price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period in 2020," he says. "Furthermore, given the divergence between ETH and BTC Hurst values, we expect BTC to begin demonstrably outperforming ETH over the coming weeks and months."

Local Estimated Hurst Coefficient
Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.52.55 PM Christopher Brookins

He also sticks with his prediction that LTC price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period. They will also lag behind BTC.

"As stated prior, given the dramatic reversal in Hurst values to overbought, LTC price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period in 2020," he adds. "Furthermore, given the divergence between LTC and BTC Hurst values, we expect BTC to begin demonstrably outperforming LTC over the coming weeks and months."

Local Estimated Hurst Coefficient
Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.58.50 PM Christopher Brookins

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