Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH has a good chance to clear $420 as miners stick to HODLing

By October 25, 2020Ethereum
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  • ETH/USD has bumped into a strong resistance created by $420.
  • On-chain and technical data implies that ETH is well-positioned to continue growing.

At the time of writing, Ethereum (ETH) is changing hands at $409. The second-largest digital asset with the current market capitalization of $46.8 billion and an average daily trading volume of $12.5 billion has gained over 12% in the last seven days and stayed unchanged in the previous 24 hours.

However, a sustainable break above the critical area of $390-$400 switched ETH in a positive mode. Let's see if the con-chain metrics and the current technical indicators support the bullish scenario's development.

ETH miners stick to their coins

According to the on-chain data provider Santiment, ETH miners prefer to keep the coins they receive as a reward for their job and lower the selling pressure on the second-largest cryptocurrency. This fundamental development increases ETH chances to clear the $420 barrier in the foreseeable future and proceed with the recovery.

As the chart below shows, ETH miners held 1.11 million coins as of October 24. Despite the retreat from the recent high of 1.13 million reached on October 20, it is still well above the September low of 1.07 million.

ETH Miners balance

Source: Santiment

Moreover, Ethereum holders also express confidence in ETH's future as nearly 60% of all coins int e circulation have not moved in more than a year. This figure has been increasing steadily. However, as a popular crypto Twitter expert and a founder of ethhub.io, Anthony Sassano, noted, it is interesting to see how many of the coins in the 5+ years category move, considering the approaching launch of ETH2.0.

~60% of all ETH hasn't moved in 1+ years.

With eth2 phase 0 approaching, it'll be interesting to see how much this percentage comes down by as Ethereum OG's move their stash into staking.

I'm particularly curious to see if any of the coins in the 5+ years category move pic.twitter.com/9H38dYAHDq

— Anthony Sassano | sassal.eth ⛽ (@sassal0x) October 14, 2020

ETH/USD: The technical picture

From the technical point of view, ETH/USD has bumped into a strong barrier created by $420. This area served as significant long-term support for the coin on numerous occasions. Now it is a formidable resistance that needs to be taken out before ETH can proceed with the recovery towards the next local target of $450.

ETH/USD daily chart

Meanwhile, on the downside, if ETH/USD fails to break above $420, the market may enter into a correction phase with the first aim at the above-mentioned $400-390 area. This former resistance has the potential to stop the sell-off and trigger a new bullish wave; however, once it is out of the way, the selling momentum will start snowballing with the next focus on $360. This barrier is reinforced by a confluence of EMAs on a 12-hour chart, which means the bears will have a hard time pushing through.

Intotheblok's data on In and Out of the Money Positioning signals that the way to the North is mostly clear as there are no meaningful supply areas above the current price.

Ethereum: IOMP data

Source: Intotheblock

Meanwhile, a considerable barrier below the current price as over 12 million addresses holding 10.4 ETH have their breakeven point in the range from $380 to $400. This massive support area has the potential to absorb the selling pressure and initiate a strong rally.

The critical levels to watch

Considering the technical indicators and on-chain metrics, ETH/USD is well-positioned to continue growing towards at least $450. However, we will need to see a sustainable move above $420 for confirmation. Otherwise, the price of the second-digital coin may retreat to $390. A break below this level will invalidate the immediate bullish scenario.

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On-chain and technical data implies that ETH is well-positioned to continue growing.

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