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How high can I see Infinity go? Well, today, we’re going to be looking at its trends. The gaming industry trends and the risk that you should probably pay attention to before you invest into Axie Infinity.
Then we’ll look at an excel spreadsheet where you can input numbers and estimates. So you know exactly what you are going to get if it hits certain milestones.
So first off, what is Axie Infinity and what makes it so special. Well, it actually is a pokemon like a game where you can breed Axie and fight against each other to get real-world money.
People who play this game seriously can earn anywhere from eight dollars to fifty dollars per day.
This doesn’t sound a lot, but in developing countries, this is considered above average pay. This is why over 40 per cent of the players are in the Philippines, and over 6 per cent of the players are in Venezuela.
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If we look at the google trends, we can see that Axie Infinity and the axs and cryptocurrency is both on its way up, but since Axie Infinity is still so new. So İt’s very, very difficult to really have a good understanding of the trend.
So in order to get a better understanding of the trends, we would look at the gaming industry. İf we look at the gaming industry here, we can see that there are large spikes around November, late November and all the way to January right here.
So when thanksgiving and new year’s coming up, and it’s reasonable to assume that more people are going to be playing Axie over the holidays.
We have a better understanding of the gaming trends. So let’s look at the gaming industry to see what can we expect the Axie Infinity cryptocurrency axs to go up to.
If we go to Investopedia, it said that “in last year the gaming industry generated around 155 billion dollars in revenue by 2025 and predicted that it might hit 260 billion usd in revenue.”
Suppose we look at the largest video game companies by market cap. We can see that Activision is around 60 billion dollars marked by market cap.
Then, of course, there are Tencent and Sony, but the thing with them is that they make a lot of other products that are not video game-related. But Activision is pretty much the majority of the video game entertainment.
Personally, I think that Axie Infinity keeps growing the way it is, and it gains really good mass adoption, then I think it can hit a 60 billion dollar market cap.
I will say that this is just an estimate for the video game industry, but as you all know, the Axie Infinity game is not just a game.
It is a way for people to make money and put food on the table. So there is a combination of video games and financials.
Currently, as of October 11th, Axie Infinity is worth 117 usd. İts market cap is 7.6 billion dollars. The fully diluted market cap is 33 billion dollars, and the circulating supply is 60.9 million coins.
What is interesting about actually Infinity is that two to three weeks ago, it was trading around 60 usd something, even 50 usd something. But around a week ago when the news.
That said that it would allow staking in action. Infinity, the price just shot up like crazy it went from 50 something 60 something to all the way to a high of 153 usd.
If we go to the excel spreadsheet, we can see that the current circulating supply is 60.9 million coins max supply is 270 million coins.
For the initial coin investment, let’s say that you bought 10 Axie Infinity.
At the current price of 124 usd coins. That means you would have a total investment of 1240 usd.
The price increase how much Axie is going to increase per year. For me, I think that it’s going to increase 20%
Staking coin is how much you think that you are going to get every year from staking Axie.
If you look at this staking dashboard right here, we can see in that the estimated reward is 161 % per year apr.
For me, I think that is pretty unrealistic. This number cannot hold out throughout the whole year. Definitely not. There’s no way that’s possible.
For me, for the sticking rewards, I think that 30 per year is pretty good. So i̇ think that is a very good number if you think that it is going to go up.
If you look at this chart, we can see that there are the years and there is the initial coin start off with ten and in around ten years from a 10 Axie Infinity you can get 137 coins. And if the price increases by 20 per year, it would be at 760 dollars per coin.
Which your 1240 dollars would be 105 000 dollars after ten years. This is accounting for a 30% staking and 20% price increase, and the crypto market cap would be 46 billion dollars.
Let's say your initial coin investment is 100 axs.
Your total investment is now around 12.500 dollars.
After ten years time, your total initial coin investment will become 1378 axs.
The price of Axie will be around 767 usd
The total investment will be over $1 million with staking your Axie Infinity coins during the next ten years.
Now let’s talk about the risk of Axie Infinity. So from my perspective, there are two major risks of Axie Infinity.
The first risk is that the price of the SLP token is decreasing. And this is because there are so many new players going on that the SLP token is being minted way faster than it is being burned. So because of that, the price keeps falling and falling.
The second risk the second risk is the competitors, and these two risks are related.
First, since the price of SLP tokens are falling, that means that it is harder and harder for people to make money out of Axie Infinity.
You need to notice that 40% of the players are from the Philippines, and 6 % of the players are from Venezuela. So almost 50% per cent of the players are from third world countries.
So if it becomes harder and harder to make money off of Axie Infinity, then they might switch to another game.
This is where competitors like crypto Blade, Sandbox and Plant vs Undead can go in providing a better way to make money and if there is a better way, then the people in the Philippines and Venezuela have no problems switching games and making money off of games that will give them more money.
I do believe that Axie Infinity can go up higher, but since it has gone up over 100% over 200% within the last a week or so, I would wait a little bit before I jump back in.
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