In a now annual ritual, before dusting off the crystal ball for a look ahead, I look back. This space goes back to last year’s prognosticating and takes a mostly objective look at the hits, misses and the times I (maybe) was just too far ahead of the game. It’s important to acknowledge that sometimes being “right” isn’t much of a victory — see the presidential race recap below. And with that, let’s take a look at the real 2015 through the haze of December a year ago.
[Due to travel, my 16 Predictions for 2016 will post either on the 1st or 2nd, stay tuned.] Crystal ball time: With 2015 in the books, it’s the time of year to dust off the crystal ball. Apparently, I’m not the only one who agrees (Photo by Neilson Barnard/Getty Images) 1) U.S. economyI had growth of 3.0%, unemployment at 5.3%, tame inflation and wage pressure, with interest rate increases delayed till the second half. Overall, not bad . Unemployment is a bit lower, and growth won’t exceed 2.5% for the year barring a huge Q4 (like many, I keep being over-optimistic on that one). That said one part looks particularly prescient: “And some Fed governors … will begin making noise about what normal really looks like given three decades of disinflation, questioning the dogma around 4% rates.” The long-run consensus has moved down to 3.25-3.5%.
2) Commodities and currencies
My expected oil recovery was instead an oil rout. The price of a barrel is half the $80 I expected. Oddly, this happened against the backdrop of the changes in the U.S. and the pressures in Venezuela and Russia I did call for. The Iran nuclear deal and continued OPEC chaos were not foreseen. The yen sits at 120/dollar, I was looking […]
