Bitcoin price looked to be curving into advance today, but analysis shows the move is spent and must first pull back if it is to continue higher. Meanwhile, crucial support could be tested in the coming hours and days.
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Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC Bitfinex 4-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The technical picture, earlier today [at xbt.social], suggested that price would make its way to the 4hr 200-period moving average (200MA, red) and this condition has now been fulfilled.
The stochastics (top panel) have reached their upper extreme, MACD (just above price) is touching its upper Bollinger Band, and RSI has reached an overhead trendline that mirrors the trendlines defining the channel that has constrained price for almost two weeks.
The upside resistance is decisive and the market will need to back price up if it wants to ramp a bullish price-buggy across the overlapping trendline and 4hr 200MA. The fact that each of four consecutive waves (magenta arrows) had formed a lower high reinforces the expectation that the small wave to the upside is spent.
On the way down there is an intersection of two trendlines – the long-term (Jan 2015) rising support, and the the local down-sloping channel. Price charts sometimes use such intersections as a gateway through tough support and resistance, but in this case we have to remember that the market has avoided trading below the long-term support for over a year. Perhaps today’s full moon could drive the bears to do the unspeakable…Although unlikely, traders should be prepared to sell into any decline below that long-time support structure. […]
