Bitcoin price is trading lower today after forming another rounded wave top. Analysis considers mining production costs and the historical relationship of market price to this fundamental metric.
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Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC Bitstamp 1-Day Candle Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Bitcoin price has continued rolling over a rounded top. As outlined in yesterday’s analysis post , downside support may be found at the local rising trendline near $440. If price bounces at this level then the market may resume the journey toward resistance at $470. Continuing decline below support opens up $400 and potentially $370, we’ll need to ascertain the degree of the next declining wave to better measure the decline’s depth.
The pivots for trade are $470 to the upside and short below $440. Mining Production Cost
For better insight into long-term bitcoin price, and its relation to block reward halving events, we consider the cost of production of Bitcoin mining.
When calculating the cost of mining production, several variables come into play, namely, capital costs such as ASIC equipment expenditure and infrastructure, as well as, operational costs such as electricity, cooling, etc. Geographical location influences costs because different locations have differing rates for power, have different climates and variable internet connectivity.The above costs are calculated alongside the mining operation’s hashrate and the protocol’s current mining difficulty in order to arrive at the miner’s effective cost to produce one bitcoin. Different methods for calculating production costs yield different average amounts, but for our purposes we’ll refer to Adam S. Hayes’s 2015 paper “ A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin “. […]
