Bitcoin price is rearing to go and the community is optimistic for greater things for the conquering Bitcoin. Today’s post revisits the potential scenarios for price (explored yesterday) as we brace for interesting developments at the moment of block reward halving.
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Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The “ halvening ” is mere blocks away and the Bitcoin community is in a celebratory mood. This is a very good indication of positive social mood and we know what positive social mood leads to: buying.
Although the expectation is for advance, it is not certain that price will surge at the moment of truth. As explored in yesterday’s analysis there are 3 likely scenarios going forward: Immediate advance, Consolidation and gradual advance, and Decline-bounce-rally.
Looking at the 4hr chart above, there are very few clues. Price appears to be in a state of consolidation similar to the price action in the magenta circle (bottom left). Will it still decline to the previous decline low (magenta arrows)? Or has price already bottomed out, ready to cross above the 200MA at all timeframes and advance through resistance (blue layer) to $750?
There is one reservation that needs to be mentioned at this moment: yes, mood is positive, and there is little reason to suspect malicious manipulation of the bitcoin price chart, but when the majority is unanimously positioned long, it does present certain large players with a profit-driven incentive to surprise to the downside. This does not affect buy-and-hold speculators – who simply wait and weather the storm – but it does affect leveraged traders who stand to lose bitcoins due to stop-losses and […]
