Categories: Ripple

The Hype and the Hollowness: Cryptocurrencies’ Over Justified Expectations

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From the white paperback in 2008, Bitcoin was heralded as the revolution and cryptocurrencies, as well as Blockchain technology, the basis on which this financial freedom would be borne upon. Now, some 10 years later, and the market is full to bursting, along with a lot of people’s pockets, but has cryptocurrency changed the world?

There is a lot of promise and potential in the cryptocurrency realm, but has even half of it been reached? Blockchain has loved the world over, but is it making an impact? Is Bitcoin the borderless, lightning fast and cheap currency it set out to be? What about adoption, are reatailers banging down the door to get paid in crypto?

There has been huge gains made in this burgeoning market of cryptocurrency; however, there are also a lot of overjustified expectations that were not reached in a year full of hype.

Bitcoin bails on its billing

“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

The first line in Bitcoin’s Whitepaper, penned by Satoshi Nakamoto, is heavily weighted towards the founding digital currency to be exactly that - a digital currency.

However, it is hard, for even the most ardent of Bitcoin fans, to call Bitcoin the ultimate and useful digital currency as it stands. The Cryptocurrency has gone through its changes this year, first with UASF coming after the Aug. 1 chain split, then with the recent failure to initiate SegWit2x.

Of course, Bitcoin’s designation is determined by its users in a democratic way, but the way in which the original currency has headed has made it hard to be the pioneer of digital currencies that could revolutionize the world.

That is not to say that things won't change. Lightning network is in the background, and there are always opportunities for changes, but 2017 saw Bitcoin drift away from its expectation to become a new era in money.

Blockchain filerbusting

When Bitcoin and others forced their way into the scope of the mainstream, those in the financial institution hissed and jeered at Bitcoin’s potential to usurp them, but they also found it hard to berate Blockchain technology.

The scope and possibilities for Blockchain technology are nearly endless - and the amount of ICOs trying to use Blockchain to solve even the most benign of problems proves that.

However, despite the likes of Microsoft incorporating Blockchain technology, and even banks in the use of Ripple, there has not been any real revolution with the use of Blockchain technology.

The Blockchain has not yet found its ‘Killer app,’ there are little shows of its power with things like Crypto Kitties on the Ethereum chain, but these are hardly forging a new world order on the Blockchain.

The power of a trustless, unhackable, immutable ledger offers so much, yet that has not been grabbed yet.

Promises, promises

In this ecosystem of hype and grandeur there have been countless promises made along the way; too many to mention. But one thing that needs to be noted is that 2017 saw plenty of people baited onto enticing hooks through shilling or FUD along the way.

Need we forget the parting shot from Bitcoin Classic which predicted that Bitcoin Cash would soon be ruling the roost. That could indeed still come to fruition, but in the now, it is important to note the spike in Bitcoin Cash’s price after that statement.

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When 10,000 Bitcoins were used to buy two pizzas, the digital currency was a truly decentralized peer-to-peer payment network that operated across the globe instantly.

Today, the price has risen nearly a million-fold, but the network is no longer quite as functional as it was back in those days.

Bitcoin still struggles with its identity, as many would like it to revolutionize money, but they are equally happy sitting on hordes of it and watching it appreciate in value faster than perhaps any other asset in history.

A single dollar invested in Bitcoin on the original Bitcoin pizza day would be worth over $3 mln today.

While upgrades have been made to Bitcoin along the way, it looks like Bitcoin is becoming less of a payment network and is instead evolving into digital gold. The failure of SegWit2x, which aimed to decrease transaction costs and improve confirmation speed, failed for a number of reasons.

Some of them were good, and some were mere straw men. But at the end of the day, one thing is clear: there is clearly no rush to increase Bitcoin’s capacity.

No problem with digital gold

Those who once pledged their support of 2x have slowly turned their back on the fork. They’ve cited all sorts of reasons, primarily lack of consensus in the community. Of course, it was clear that there would be difficulties launching a hard fork just a few months after implementing the SegWit soft fork.

But the failure of the community and the Bitcoin development team to express any sense of urgency at fixing the scalability issue has had lasting effects. In fact, it has seriously skewed the way people now view Bitcoin.

Because of developers’ apathy when it comes to speeding transactions and lowering fees, the Bitcoin network has become much less useful as a payment network. The currency has now effectively evolved into an entirely new type of asset for investors to get excited about.

Progress has been made in advancing its investability with the announcement of futures, and the backing of a number of Wall Street investors, but when it has come to its retail adoption and bettering as a payment method things have been sluggish.

Digital-marketing agency’s Co-Founder Roger Wu puts it quite simply:

“The biggest thing is are people willing to pay in Bitcoin?” Wu said. “The reality is that most of our customers are other businesses and other businesses don’t use Bitcoin."

Of course, this is also a two-edged sword as if people are not willing to spend their Bitcoin; then merchants will not race to make it a reality, which will again give people no reason to spend their digital gold.

“It’s quite possible that after a while you just realize it’s not worth the cost of tooling up to take it and you decide to drop it if the publicity has run its course,” said David Yermack, a professor at New York University Stern School of Business who studies Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley delved deeper into the possibilities of Bitcoin and Blockchain in a 33-page report back in June.

“The Blockchain underpinnings of most cryptocurrencies scale too poorly for most currency-like uses,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. “Time to clear single transactions can often be from 10 minutes to more than an hour.”

Thus, the view that Bitcoin is digital gold sits nicely with the majority who are making huge profits off their investments and they would be damned to see some contentious rule change on the protocol damaging all that.

Still opportunities to be both

So, if Bitcoin has taken big strides towards being digital gold, while also leaving its payment system roots behind, what does this spell for the so-called ‘future of money’? There are still chances for digital gold to work as a payment method though.

It is good that Bitcoin is settling on its core function, even if that function if different to what the white paper prescribed years ago. If Bitcoin becomes a solid, trustless and dependable store of wealth, then its payment network can be built on top of that base.

The most often-cited example of how a better payment system can come out of Bitcoin is the Lightning Network upgrade. This speeds things up dramatically as a network of cached transactions are sent between users rather than on-chain transactions.

Pick a direction

Having Bitcoin head solidly down one corridor, in this case the digital gold one, you are creating a digital asset first that can be used as a payment network later. The reverse would have dire consequences, and it is the likes of Bitcoin Cash and other altcoins who are trying to be payment-first.

A payment system needs stable liquidity, and that stability cannot be reached if you aim to be a payment network before you are an established asset. More liquidy can only help settle down things like cryptocurrencies, as even the volatility of Bitcoin has eased as more money has entered the market.

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