If you did not know better, you would think Britain is in the midst of a general election with just two weeks to go until parliament returns.
Boris Johnson, the unelected conservative (blue) Prime Minister has been absent after a PR blitz when he took power.
For now, it is all the Jo Swinson show of the Libdems (yellow), with Jeremy Corbyn of Labour (red) trying to be relevant.
All this is playing on the Pound chart, and in the inverse on the bitcoin chart to some extent where it bounces off $10,000, with GBP becoming the biggest betting market on deal or no deal.
You can see that big red in July as Boris posed with generals in nuclear submarines making the country and the market wonder.
Germany has apparently finalized preparations for no-deal which they think is “highly likely” given demands the Irish border backstop be dropped.
“The EU has no choice but to reject this demand, the finance ministry said in the document,” according to some German daily.
So while the pound was holding a bit after Johnson took over, his failure to go straight to Brussels and the end of negotiations before they even begun placed the country back to where it was before he took over.
In a stroke of luck, a by-election was to be held with Libdems winning. Thus, amid a falling pound and a falling economy and an absent red, yellow took over the show.
There is no deal which is better than the one we have with Europe, Jo Swinson said in a speech that gave the impression she is starting to look Prime Ministerial.
To trap her, Corby made a ransom demand. Labour will table a no-confidence vote if they make him Prime Minister, he said. Nonsense – was Jo’s reply. You can’t choose the leader of labour, Corbyn nana-ed. This is time for grown up politics, we need the father of the house or the mother of the house to temporarily lead an extension and call a general election, the leader of yellow said.
Red’s play here is pretty obvious, hence why it has backfired. They wanted to turn to their supporters and say yellow voted against this, see, we are the real party for remain.
Yet everyone can see the anti-EU Corbyn made an offer designed to be rejected because he actually wants Britain to get out of Europe, hence why red and blue have now been hand in hand for three years.
Another option being considered is an act of parliament. This would order the Prime Minister to seek an extension. Europe would probably grant it because obviously there’s a general election – although not quite technically yet. The question is whether such act would pass.
We’re missing Boris in this whole play. This silence suggests he is cooking up something. While red and yellow publicly lay out their plans and maneuver for the electorate, Boris is probably planning a surprise.
So September 3rd 2019 might well be a very interesting day with quite a few votes during that week and with a general election probably to be called with the question being whether before or after the 31st of October.
Why that date matters necessarily isn’t too clear as after having read many ancient books, Johnson is probably playing technicalities, yet Europe is not stupid. They can see what’s going on.
Specifically, if a general election is called leading to a six weeks period when Parliament is not sitting and thus the 31st of October deadline is passed, Europe can just ignore it and the British civil service can just ignore it and continue as if nothing happened under an implied assumption that the outcome of the election determines whether Britain has exited or not.
It’s not like bots suddenly go into automated action once some magical day is passed. If blue wins, then they can implement whatever policies and if yellow wins, then they can implement their policies. That’s what determines the outcome, not silly plays that amount to declaring Sunday is Monday.
With blue divided, where there’s a former chancellor leading a rebellion, and red divided, where re-programmed Corbyn perhaps even unconsciously does all he can to facilitate Brexit, this election will be a show indeed.
Changing the course of history is on the table, regardless of who wins. The directions are only two since a deal is not possible. The board is very complex.
Polls lie. That’s rule number one. Polling companies have deals with hedge funds and so on with polls themselves a very powerful propaganda tool. Don’t believe any poll.
There’s a clear trend here however. Only conservatives and libdems are gaining. Labour is losing bigly. The Brexit Party is losing bigly. While Greens have a very big decision to make.
If green joins the remain alliance, then yellow could actually take power if the trend continues. If greens go on their own, then yellow could perhaps play even in Brighton on a platform of being greener than green and the only option to tackle climate change through the European stage.
The other interesting thing here is the Brexit Party is still holding. Down, but not out. Nigel Farage is off to America and left them kind of on their own, but having sent them to the fountain, they’re now gone drink water.
Boris therefore might not quite be able to unite the leave side in a general election vote, with blue not quite able to enter a pact with them as that would give Jo Swinson a very nice gift indeed.
What happened in Brecon and Radnorshire, therefore, may repeat in other constituencies, with yellow on the up as MPs defect other parties to join Libdems as do other leadership figures.
Labour is in a perilous position. By a stretch, they can even be blamed for this whole Brexit mess for attacking yellow fully, so handing over blue a majority in 2015.
David Cameron probably thought lib-con coalition would return to power. Thus he’d have to scratch the Brexit referendum promise in the coalition hagglings.
To many’s surprise, blue was returned with a majority and yellow was decimated because red hammered them on tuition fees even though labour itself increased them.
So Cameron had to go ahead with the referendum, a referendum where Corbyn was basically absent because he wants Brexit to implement his communist agenda.
Thus why a pro-european voter would continue staying with red is not very clear. There’s obviously the usual working class and minorities according to commentators, but red doesn’t own either of them.
It is yellow that took the poorest out of tax all-together and during the coalition put the country back to work with it now in full employment. While red gave the working class a recession and gave hundreds of billion to rich bankers, with the poor and all the rest left in the cold with no assistance by the then labour chancellor Alistair Darling.
While on social issues arguably Boris is going furthest with his amnesty, but yellow of course has social liberalism at the root of its principles.
Red instead discriminates against certain genders in a way that basically says women or minorities are not capable of winning on their own merit so they have central planning where they decide only women can stand for a seat or only minorities.
That’s very offensive to Martin Luther King himself who said we should judge by character, not gender or color or religion, but by merit.
Not least because this quotas thing doesn’t work as shown by labour being the only party that hasn’t had a woman leader.
Obviously women, minorities, everyone should be encouraged to do as best as they can in everything they wish to do, but not by discriminating against any other gender or race as we have seen where that led.
That may be one consideration, especially when it comes to independents or sort of centrist labour voters, but these domestic aspects can always be changed. The question of Europe, however, and the question of climate change, with both being inter-related, are decisions that are to be made for decades.
Whoever voted labour last time, therefore, will probably now vote on leave or remain. On that question, labour may well be a wasted vote with poll trends showing this might be a blue v yellow two horse race as those are the only two parties gaining, while all others are losing.
There’s finally also the question of Scotland with SNP there probably wondering whether Libdems might sweep the country as obviously Libdems would be the best chance of stoping Brexit.
SNP is more of a protest party. They can not take power as they’re not a national party, sitting only in Scotland. They can’t even be the leader of the opposition. Both of those roles can have huge influence on in or out. So why wouldn’t the very pro-European Scotland vote Libdems?
That’s especially since Jo Swinson is Scottish and that’s especially since the majority of Scotland voted to remain in the UK. Meaning the majority there are not nationalists. They probably vote SNP just to protect Scotland’s interest, but since they’re pro-EU, it may be Libdems protect their interests better.
Meaning the party of liberalism has the chance of turning the country yellow, from Scotland highlands to Welsh hills and all the way down to Brighton if they don’t pact.
Just as conservatives have the chance of turning the country blue, although not Scotland.
What Britain will decide remains to be seen, but while some expect a hung parliament, it may actually be the case there’s a majority.
A yellow majority is unthinkable to plenty of analysts, but as they’re the only clear choice for remain, it may actually happen.
A blue majority on the other hand might now be a bit more shaky because Boris Johnson did not even talk to Europe. Instead he went to meet generals. An image which might not easily be forgotten by voters when they go to the polls.
Yet few can say anything for sure expect that politics is clearly re-aligning in Britain with yellow rising to be the defacto opposition.
Boris Johnson, the […]
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