Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Long “squeeze up” could spark big reversal

By December 20, 2019 Bitcoin Business
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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Long “squeeze up” could spark big reversal
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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Long “squeeze up” could spark big reversal

At press time, BTC/USD traded at around $6,600 amid considerable volatility, having bounced back after dipping to $6,430 — its lowest level in over seven months.

Current levels are crucial for analysts, many of whom believed miners would defend $6,500, which constitutes a common production cost.

Even before the latest dive, sentiment appeared skewed towards Bitcoin going lower still. A Twitter survey by regular Cointelegraph contributor filbfilb revealed 70% of 3,600 respondents thought BTC/USD would find its “bottom” under $6,000.

Comparisons to market behavior in late 2018 also began to increase. Last December, Bitcoin reached a floor after a year-long bear market, subsequently bouncing from $3,100 to highs of $13,800.

According to some indicators, current conditions suggest a repeat of Bitcoin’s 2019 transformation may well be on the cards.

Specifically, analyst Crypto Flux noted Bitcoin’s notional value based on longs was now far higher than the $6,500 spot price — exactly as it was twelve months ago.

As in February 2019, just before the start of this year’s bull market, the notional short value was already bouncing off its recent lows.

“$BTC trend reversal may start now,” Crypto Flux summarized on Tuesday.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,926.77.

The projected upper bound is: 7,653.05.

The projected lower bound is: 6,525.85.

The projected closing price is: 7,089.45.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.3020. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -37.130 at 7,130.870. Volume was 48% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 55% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,133.2507,476.1007,025.0407,130.870 42,574
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,089.59 7,937.15 9,316.46
Volatility: 61 47 75
Volume: 80,249 81,449 85,245

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 23.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 35 periods.

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