A Twitter user named Croesus, known for his Bitcoin analytics, shared an analysis of Bitcoin halving. According to Croesus, the signals of the bullish trend seen in the markets after the halving have surfaced again. The analyst said that the bull market will be seen within 18 months after the halving.
Stating that the Bitcoin halving caused a supply shock, the analyst touched on the insane periods of the halvings between 2012 and 2016, in 2013-2017. According to the analyst, we could witness a massive bull rally in Bitcoin in the 18 months after the halving seen in May 2020.
THREAD: #Bitcoin halvings cause a supply shock. The slow accumulation of this supply shortage drives a bull market in the ensuing ~18 months.
2012 and 2016 halving -> 2013 and 2017 mania. 2020 halving on track for same.
This thread attempts to visualize those mechanics. pic.twitter.com/TOlxpI93KF
— Croesus (@Croesus_BTC) October 23, 2020
What did Croesus say in his analysis?
Croesus shared his analysis in detail in the tweet series. Referring to the post-halving insanity periods seen in Bitcoin in previous years, the analyst emphasized that the supply of halving was halved, but the demand did not change. Saying that there is a shortage of supply for this reason, Croesus stated that the available available for sale supply in the stock markets is decreasing, but the accumulated effect is still small.
Emphasizing the importance of the increase in supply scarcity, the analyst said that the reduced supply of Bitcoins ready for sale will drive prices up. Stating that miners cannot contribute to this issue, Croesus suggested that HODLers may affect this supply. He also pointed out that as the craze increases, HODLers’ willingness to sell will also increase and the price increase will accelerate.
“I believe the signal shown here is a sign of how the halving is driving the 18-month parabolic bull markets.”
Positive reactions to the halving analysis
Croesus’s analysis caught the attention of many. Among those who reacted positively are Raoul Pal and PlanB. Raoul Pal commented “Great” for Croesus’s analysis. Plan B wrote:
“This analysis is exactly as I saw it! The supply scarcity seen after the halving increases the supply / demand pressure, but this breaks down within a few months. I calculated that the bull market would start in the January / February period. “